The Russian attack on VoznesenskA Russian-speaking town with 35,000 inhabitants. was well-planned. Missiles hit buildings in the centre of the town. Helicopters dropped soldiers to the southwest, while an armoured column approached from the southeast. Victory would give them a clear route to the vital port of OdesaAn important port city in southern Ukraine., and cut off the whole of south Ukraine.

But it did not work out that way. After a two-day battle, the invaders were forced to retreat over 40 miles, with Ukrainian artillery still attacking. Behind them, they left nearly 30 vehiclesHalf of them are reported to be repairable for use against the Russians., from tanks to mobile rocket launchers - and the wreckage of a helicopter. They also lost around 100 soldiers.

"We didn't have a single tank against them, just rocket-propelled grenades, Javelin missilesUS-made portable anti-tank missiles with a range of 2,500 metres. and the help of artillery," revealed a Ukrainian commander. But that, and fighting spirit, was enough. "Everyone is united against the common enemy," said the town's mayor. "We are defending our own land. We are at home."

Though Ukraine has suffered horrifically since the invasion, that is not the whole story. "Pictures of shattered hospitals, dead children and blasted apartment blocks accurately convey the terror and brutality of this war," writes Professor Eliot A Cohen in The Atlantic, "but they do not convey its military realities."

The evidence that Ukraine is winning the war, Cohen argues, is plentiful. Russian forces have yet to capture any key targets. They are no longer making spectacular advances. The 40-mile military convoy heading for Kyiv has been bogged down for weeks.

Russia has failed to gain control of the airThe Russians have far more aeroplanes, but the Ukrainians have made good use of anti-aircraft missiles. and has suffered heavy casualties. Between 7,000 and 14,000 of its soldiers have been killed, and at least 30,000 more are thought to have been wounded or captured - or to have deserted. Casualty rates are estimated at 1,000 a day.

Some experts nevertheless believe that Russia will win, because its army is so much bigger. But, says Cohen, that ignores the skill of the Ukrainian army, which has been well-trained by the US, Britain and Canada. In contrast, the Russians have shown tactical incompetence and a lack of leadershipSeveral generals have been killed, and Cohen claims that junior Russian officers are of a low calibre.. The high number of captured vehicles shows "an army that is unwilling to fight".

Ukraine is receiving a steady flow of weapons, including the best anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles in the world. The US is also thought to be providing vital intelligence about Russian movements.

The worry is that, as his hopes of a quick victory disappear, Putin will resort to ever more desperate measures. The merciless attacks on civilians in Mariupol are likely to be repeated in other cities. And on Tuesday his spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia would use nuclear weapons if there is "an existential threat for our country".

Yesterday, though, Ukrainians had something to celebrate - the recapture of the town of Makariv 40 miles west of Kyiv. Russian troops were reported to be surrounded in three nearby cities, and helicopters to have been pulled back from Kherson60 miles northwest of Crimea, it was the first important city to be captured by the Russians. after a Ukrainian attack.

Yes: Most experts predicted that the Russians would win a swift and overwhelming victory. It would be very embarrassing for them to be proved wrong, so they insist that Russia will recover momentum.

No: Evidence of Russia's problems is growing all the time. We have only been slow to acknowledge that because it seems too good to be true and because we are afraid of being ultimately disappointed.

Or... There can be no real winner in this war. If the invasion succeeds, Russia will still have a much-weakened army and economy. If it fails, Ukraine will still have suffered brutal damage and deep trauma.