War fears rise as Trump dumps nuclear deal

1/ Iran launches an assault on Israel

Iranian troops are now in Syria, fighting for the Assad regime. Syria’s neighbour, Israel, views Iran as a threat and has already killed Iranian forces with airstrikes. Without the deal, Iran may be emboldened to launch retaliatory attacks of its own, which could spark a war between the two states. Israel is on “high alert” and has opened bomb shelters in vulnerable areas.

2/ Saudi Arabia bombs Iran

Iran and Saudi Arabia are currently fighting a proxy war in Yemen, but have avoided direct conflict. However, shortly after Trump’s announcement, Iran-aligned forces in Yemen fired a salvo of ballistic missiles at the Saudi capital, Riyadh. Some see this as a sign of deliberate escalation, which Saudi Arabia may respond to with direct attacks on Iran.

3/ Iran develops nukes — America goes to war

The deal prevented Iran from enriching nuclear material to weapons-grade levels. Without it, Iran is free to build nuclear missiles — which would give the US a clear pretext for military action. However, Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, wants to keep the deal alive in spite of America’s exit, and previously said Iran would never develop nuclear weapons.

4/ Worldwide nuclear arms race sparked

If Iran builds nuclear weapons, it won’t be the only country the US will have to worry about. Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia would all want their own atomic arsenals too. Then there’s North Korea. With the Iran deal breaking down, some think Kim Jong-un will now be sceptical of any denuclearisation proposals Trump makes when the pair meet later this year.

5/ Trump’s gamble pays off

“They are going to want to make a new and lasting deal,” Trump said before withdrawing from the pact. He predicts that economic sanctions will force Iran back to the negotiating table. Right now, this seems unlikely. Yesterday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that Trump’s body would be “food of the worms and ants”, and hardline lawmakers lit an American flag on fire in parliament.

Is the world a more dangerous place now?

Deal-breaker

Of course, some argue. The move inflames multiple conflicts around the Middle East, puts Iran back on a dangerous path to nuclear weapons and alienates the US from key European allies. Worst of all, Trump has no backup plan if Iran does not play ball with his new demands. The consequences are bleak.

Not necessarily, others respond. Even if it wanted to, Iran is a long way off building nuclear weapons. And it will take serious escalations to push Israel or Saudi Arabia into open war. What’s more, early signs suggest Iran will try to keep the deal afloat with other world powers. There is hope.