Three weeks to go: polls say UK could leave EU

A rush of bets in their favour. Voters saying one of their strongest issues is the top priority. And now a surge in the polls.

With three weeks to go until the UK’s EU referendum, the signs suggest the Leave campaign’s chances of victory are increasing.

Yesterday a new poll gave it a 3% lead. Leave gained 3% in two weeks; Remain lost 4%. More than four in ten voters said immigration was one of their main concerns.

Undecided voters are warming to the anti-EU case. Bookmaker William Hill says it has seen ‘a sudden stream of bets from Exeter to Oldham’ for Leave.

Just two weeks ago, betting market analysis suggested an 82% chance of a Remain vote. Remain led in the poll of polls. Now the two camps have returned to a dead heat; in the last two weeks, three other polls have given Leave the lead.

Polls can be misleading. Last year, they gave no indication of the Conservatives’ victory in the UK general election — two months after a similar surprise in Israel. Nine companies are collecting data and there have been variations far outside the usual 3% margin of error. In mid-May one poll showed Remain leading 55-37; other polls simultaneously put Leave in contention or in the lead.

Remain has tended to win telephone polls; internet results have been closer. Analysts suggest more Remain voters may say they ‘don’t know’ online; poll samples may be skewed; and people could feel pressurised to declare for Remain on the phone.

Labour and Liberal Democrat voters are more likely to vote Remain than Conservative or UKIP supporters. Young, well-educated professionals are more positive about EU membership than older voters, manual workers and those without a degree. Guardian readers are pro-Remain; Express, Sun and Mail readers are pro-Leave.

Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and – in particular – London are strongholds of the Remain campaign. The East Midlands and coastal areas are most hostile to the EU.

But what does all this mean?

Polls apart

The momentum is with us, say Leavers. Older voters are more likely to turn up on polling day. The pro-EU Labour party is largely anonymous: leader Jeremy Corbyn is reluctant and almost half of Labour supporters told YouGov they do not even know their party’s position. The insurgent campaign is slowly convincing people to take a bold stand.

It is still ours to lose, respond Remainers. Bookmakers make Remain the clear favourite. As a report by the bank Citigroup said last week, polls at this stage tend to overstate the support for change; the Scottish independence referendum of 2014 is proof of this. The latest survey by Opinium has 16% of people still undecided – and the uncertain will not want to risk upsetting the status quo.