Tension rises as Putin threatens Baltics

Russian soldiers have come to the Estonian city of Narva twice before. In 1700 Peter the Great was routed by the Swedish empire there. Two and a half centuries later the Soviet Union captured it from Nazi Germany.

Narva lies across the river from Russia. A third of its inhabitants are Russian citizens. Now some of its residents fear the Russian army could return.

Lt-Gen Riho Terras, Estonia’s highest-ranking military officer, had some sharp advice for his soldiers last year: ‘You should shoot the first one to appear’. He was warning that pro-Russian separatists might enter the country to cause unrest, as they did in Ukraine two years ago.

Estonia’s Baltic neighbours, Latvia and Lithuania, have practised for similar scenarios. Lithuania has reintroduced conscription. And residents of northern Poland have reported an increase in military exercises. ‘You can hear the shooting at four in the morning,’ says Katarzyna Plejnis, who lives in Braniewo.

In recent months, Vladimir Putin has reportedly increased his military capability and deployed missiles to the territory of Kaliningrad, which borders Poland. And in September 2014, Russia seized an Estonian intelligence officer just inside his own border; they have since sentenced him to 15 years in prison.

During the Cold War, the Baltic states and Poland were among those occupied by the Soviet Union. But since the end of the Cold War, they have gained independence and joined Nato. The Western military alliance was formed in 1949 to counter the Soviet threat. Nato is committed to defending its members against attack; under Article 5 of its founding treaty, members agree: ‘an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all’.

Nato has responded to Putin by holding large training exercises in the Baltic states. This week President Obama proposed to quadruple the amount of money the US spends defending central and eastern Europe. Now, polls suggest, an increasing number of Russians see the US as a threat.

Russian roulette

Putin is the biggest danger to the West, say some. He was ruthless and unpredictable in Ukraine. His background in the paranoid world of the Soviet intelligence services is troubling. He is vulnerable — Russia’s economy is collapsing and his conventional military forces have declined. And he has a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons.

That’s overly pessimistic, say others. Ukraine is uniquely symbolic to Russians — Putin’s actions there will not be repeated. He is primarily interested in defending Russia, and attacking a Nato member would bring catastrophic consequences for his country. He is merely putting on a show of force.