TB, AIDS and polio on the verge of extinction

Right now, alarming headlines are warning of a deadly flu crisis spreading across the globe. And in recent years, high-profile epidemics of Ebola in West Africa and Zika in Brazil have fuelled a seemingly never-ending succession of global health scares.

But for all the lives ravaged by these terrible diseases, countless more are being quietly saved by historic advances in medicine.

Indeed former US president Barack Obama recently declared that “The world has never been healthier.” He claimed that “If you had to choose any moment in history in which to be born, you would choose right now.”

So just how good is medicine getting?

Well, some of the most deadly diseases are slowly being wiped out. Tuberculosis has killed more people than any other infectious disease in history, responsible for over a billion deaths in the last 200 years. Yet since 2000 the global number of deaths has fallen by 37% — meaning that over 50 million lives have been saved.

Furthermore, since 2005 AIDs deaths have dropped by half. This is largely down to a huge intergovernmental effort to distribute lifesaving drugs to vulnerable areas.

Similarly, a global vaccination drive has almost completely eradicated polio, whilst increasingly effective vaccines for cholera are also being developed.

But as these highly infectious diseases are eradicated, other “non-communicable” diseases become more prominent. These are illnesses which are not contagious like heart disease, diabetes, cancer, and chronic respiratory disease.

Yet even these are becoming less deadly. One study found that globally, premature deaths caused by these four major conditions decreased by 16% between 2000 and 2015. In the USA cancer deaths alone fell by 23% between 1991 and 2012 — saving 1.7 million lives.

This particular trend has less to do with wonder drugs or big international health programmes, but more subtle social changes. Fewer people smoke, and greater cancer awareness leads to people going for check-ups more regularly.

But can these trends lead to a world free from disease?

Gut feeling

It is possible, some say. A century ago, the idea of totally eradicating polio would have seemed ridiculous. But through cooperation, ingenious research, and sheer force of will, we have almost done it. Nothing stops us from attempting the same thing with more diseases — particularly with so many lives at stake.

Diseases could actually get worse, others respond. With antibiotic resistance increasing, the day may come when super-resistant bugs will devastate human populations. Furthermore, we must focus less on cures and more on the causes of disease. Simple things like better access to clean water would save countless lives.