Russian troops mass on Ukrainian border

Could Vladimir Putin start World War Three? Yesterday, Ukraine’s president asked Nato for help as hostile forces continued to gather to the north and east of Ukraine and in occupied Crimea. The attack would come without warning. A muffled thump, coming from deep underwater, would be the only sign that World War Three had started. And then, vast, radioactive tsunamis would crash over the coastline, devastating the land and claiming millions of lives. This, experts warned on Monday, would be the effect of Russia’s new superweapon, the Poseidon 2M39 torpedo. It would be able to sneak past coastal defences and detonate underwater, turning the sea radioactive and pushing enormous waves towards the land. Some worry that this new weapons-testing is evidence that Russia is becoming increasingly aggressive – and that efforts to extend its influence could lead to new wars. Russia has been taking advantage of climate breakdown to test Poseidon, as well as other superweapons, in the thawing Arctic Circle. In the next few years, as the Arctic ice melts and exposes more open ocean, this area will become a major shipping route. Some fear Russia’s military activities there show the state is trying to establish control of the route as it opens up. At the same time, Russia is flexing its muscles towards its neighbours. Last year, it helped suppress pro-democracy protests in Belarus. And in the last few days, it has amassed troops on the border with Ukraine. In 2014, Russian soldiers seized Crimea, a vital strategic outpost in the Black Sea that belonged to Ukraine. Since that time, Russia has been funding rebel groups in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, trying to destabilise its neighbour. Now there are fears the country could be preparing to invade Ukraine and annex Donbas. The US has warned Russia against the move, and would come under pressure to defend Ukraine. Others are sceptical that recent events hint at possible war. They think Russia is only acting aggressively in order to mask its weaknesses. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin now has the right to stay in power until 2036, there have been signs in recent years that he might be toppled long before then. Earlier this year, waves of protest against Putin broke out across Russia. Growing numbers of Russians regard the regime as corrupt and oppressive, and they have found a charismatic figurehead in Alexei NavalnyA well-known opposition leader in Russia and critic of Vladimir Putin, who died in prison in 2024 at the age of 47. , the imprisoned Putin critic who survived a poisoning attempt last year. And Putin’s control is slipping outside Russia’s borders as well. In October, Russian ally Armenia lost a short war against Azerbaijan, which was backed by Turkey, Russia’s great southern rival. Under the peace treaty, the Russian military presence in the region has been heavily scaled back. Then, in Moldova’s 2020 elections, the pro-Russian president was defeated by a pro-Western candidate who is expected to seek closer ties with the European Union. For some, Putin is not expanding his power at all: he is lashing out at the West to hide these failures and shore up his support amongst Russian conservatives. Could Russia start World War Three? Putin-g it on Yes, say some. Russia is still a very powerful nation: with 6,400 warheads, it owns the largest nuclear stockpile in the world, and its soldiers have gained combat experience in Ukraine and Syria. Its expansion into the Arctic will be seen as a threat by the USA. Even if it does not want a world war, Russia could accidentally spark one by provoking the USA into a confrontation. Not at all, say others. Russia is really quite a weak nation, with a restive population and shrinking influence abroad. Its allies in eastern Europe, like Belarus and Moldova, are turning away from Russian-style authoritarianism, and towards European social democracy. Within Russia, anti-Putin movements are going from strength to strength. It is in no position to fight a new world war. KeywordsArctic Circle - An imaginary line drawn around the most northern part of the world. It is one of the two very cold areas of the Earth near the poles.