• Reading Level 5
Maths | Science

Past the peak…but still the worst in Europe

How well – or not – has Britain done? With the UK set to be the European nation worst affected by Covid-19, we take a forensic look at the numbers behind the coronavirus catastrophe. The UK is labouring towards its target of carrying out 100,000 tests a day by the end of April. Just over 81,000 tests took place on Wednesday but, last night, cabinet minister Grant Shapps told BBC's Question Time there was capacity for more. The government was "likely to get very close to or meet" its target of 100,000 daily coronavirus tests, he said, when yesterday's numbers are confirmed later today. But the government was criticised by NHS Providers for using headline numbers as a distraction from the fact that there was no clear testing strategy. And although Boris Johnson, yesterday, announced that the UK was now past the peakAt the highest level; maximum. Since the early 00s, there has been a surfeit of high-quality television dramas, often starring Hollywood actors. This era has been referred to as Peak TV, or the Golden Age of Television. - news which dominates most of the headlines today - the underlying truth is that the UK's death toll is fast approaching that of Italy. Indeed, many experts are convinced that the UK will end up soon with the dubiousQuestionable. It derives from the Latin word for doubt. distinction of having the worst numbers in Europe. Tests. The UK has so far carried out 901,905 tests for the coronavirus, with 687,369 people tested. This is fewer than the totals in Germany, Spain, Italy, and the US. Until recently, the UK tests have been focused on a few frontline NHS workers and those with symptoms already inside hospitals. Infections.As of Wednesday afternoon, 171,253 people in the UK had tested positive for the coronavirus. Despite difficulties in rolling out tests, the UK has about the same number of confirmed cases as Germany and France - and fewer than Spain, Italy, and the US. The true figure is expected to be much higher, as only a small minority of those with symptoms has been able to get tested. Many more are thought to be asymptomatic. But it is still highly unlikely that the UK or any country has achieved herd immunityUsually used to describe the effectiveness of vaccination, the term refers to having enough people in a given community who have recovered from a viral infection and, therefore, cannot pass it on. This slows the spread of a disease and prevents a population from future epidemics.. Deaths (case fatality rate). Over 26,770 people have now died as a result of the coronavirus in the UK. This puts the country third in the world rankings behind Italy and the USA. This number suggests that over 15% of people who have contracted coronavirus in the UK have died. But this does not mean one in seven of those who caught the virus will die. It reflects the fact that most of those infected will not have been tested. In Iceland, where there have been more tests, the true mortality rate seems to be below 1%. Deaths (adjusted). Listing the number of deaths does not provide much context - especially without widespread testing. A better metric might be Covid-19 deaths per million, which on a recent count of 388 puts the UK third, behind Belgium (632) and Italy (452). Another option is to just look at the number of excess deathsThe number of fatalities above what would be expected in normal times. It includes non-Covid-19 deaths caused by disruption to the healthcare system. over a certain time-frame. According to that measure, Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the Netherlands have all been hit worse than the UK. So, how well - or not - has Britain done? Apples and oranges Awfully. One chilling study monitoring 17,000 Covid-19 patients in the UK found that of those admitted to hospital, one in three had died. Such a figure was comparable to EbolaA highly infectious disease causing internal and external bleeding. A vaccine against it has recently been developed. outbreaks in West Africa. Though testing capacity has now been ramped up, for too long the UK was fighting the outbreak blind. The virus has torn through care homes and is expected to kill more people than the BlitzA German bombing campaign against the UK between 1940 and 1941, during World War Two. . Not too badly. Anyway, we will never know. As in any crisis of this scale, many infections and deaths were somewhat inevitable. No major western nation was able to avoid some sort of outbreak. A different government might have done a better job, but could also have done a far worse one. Further, it is almost impossible to compare the numbers in a fair and equal way. KeywordsPeak - At the highest level; maximum. Since the early 00s, there has been a surfeit of high-quality television dramas, often starring Hollywood actors. This era has been referred to as Peak TV, or the Golden Age of Television.

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