Great upheaval: a new political era is born

‘The only number Boris is interested in is Number 10.’

‘The Treasury can’t even forecast the next six months.’

Such exchanges would be normal between political opponents — not allies. But the UK Conservative Party has been sharply divided during the EU referendum campaign. Six cabinet ministers have opposed the government — a decision which would usually see them sacked — with 137 of the party’s MPs. Personal attacks between colleagues have been common.

Rumours suggest many Tories will put their antipathy to the EU above party loyalty after the referendum. Some may challenge David Cameron’s leadership. If the UK votes Leave, the party could sabotage its own chancellor’s emergency budget, paralysing the government. ‘This is, most assuredly, only the beginning,’ says Guardian writer Matthew D’Ancona.

The Labour Party is also fighting over whether to turn to the world or against it. Last year, leader Jeremy Corbyn gained the overwhelming support of his party’s membership on an anti-capitalist, anti-nuclear, anti-American platform. But such views horrify the majority of his MPs.

These parties have traditionally been united by, respectively, conservatism and socialism. But such loyalties are cracking. Polls suggest voters will split along class, identity and regional lines, not ideological ones, in tomorrow’s referendum.

And the nationalist SNP and UKIP have gained remarkably in recent years. Increasingly, politics seems to be a battle between those who defend the interests and identities of certain communities and those who exercise influence globally.

This is true elsewhere too. Donald Trump and populists across Europe have benefited from anti-globalist sentiment. Hostility to multinational businesses, tax avoidance and migration has surged.

There have been upheavals in the political order before. Britain’s Conservative and Liberal Parties emerged when the distinction between Tories and Whigs lost relevance in the 1800s. The 20th century saw the rise of socialism. Could a similar process now be underway?

The new divide

Yes, say some. Old coalitions are not holding: for example, Corbyn has nothing in common with the globalist wing of his party. National governments have surrendered power to international corporations and institutions. The battle over their right to do so is now the fundamental one in politics.

A temporary blip, reply others, in response to recent crises. Left and right disagree on how much to tax and spend; how to tackle social problems; and whether responsibility can overcome structural disadvantage. Battles over equality, liberty and order have been central to Western politics since the 18th century enlightenment, and will remain so.