Forecasters see a new world after the pandemic

The medieval peasant who had survived the Black Death was counting his blessings. The plague had been devastating for Europe, killing between a third and a half of most countries’ populations. But the resulting shortage of labour meant that workers were able to demand better treatment and much higher wages. Suddenly, a ploughman could earn five times the amount he had been used to.

Covid-19 is not expected to cause anything like as many fatalities. But it too could change people’s lives for the better. Yesterday, we conducted a review of the experts – scientists, sociologists, and professional forecasters. Here is a summary of their conclusions.

Everyday life may benefit from the sense of community the pandemic has created. People have learnt to look out for others – particularly the elderly – and realised how rewarding it is. And they have rediscovered the joy of shared activities, like cooking.

Now that we are doing more online, we could make much better use of the internet. Families might find they enjoy home schooling; students could learn remotely instead of paying high fees, and businesses might realise that employees can work effectively without having to commute to an office. Consulting a doctor online instead of queuing in a surgery could become the norm.

The environment might benefit too. In some cities, daily emissions from cars are 60% down on last year. People can see how much better life is with less pollution. They may now feel that they can get by with fewer journeys – for both business and pleasure – and live with fewer things made in factories.

Conservationists also hope for a better life for wild animals, particularly if the Chinese authorities permanently close markets like the one in Wuhan where the pandemic is thought to have started.

Politically and economically there could be a shift towards valuing and rewarding those who do vital work, such as doctors and teachers, more than those who simply make a profit for their employers. People may also realise that their own health depends on that of others, so everyone should be properly housed and fed.

Globalisation could be reversed as countries wake up to the importance of being able to supply themselves. This would lead to a revival of local manufacturing, and force China to be less intransigent as its exports fell.

After Covid-19, will the world be reborn as a better place?

Hatching a future

Yes, say the majority of experts. It has already made us more resourceful as we work out ways to get by – and more imaginative as we have to abandon old habits. We have had a chance to think more deeply and rediscovered the importance of caring for others: John Donne wrote his famous line, “No man is an island”, while recovering from fever.

But a few disagree. For them, the crisis has given politicians an excuse to introduce authoritarian measures, such as increasing surveillance and postponing elections. Enforced social distancing has increased loneliness and abuse. And we have already seen a rise in nationalist xenophobia, with distrust of foreigners growing swiftly.