Are opinion polls harmful? Every day, pollsters worldwide publish more surveys claiming to delve into the mind of the average voter. Now, some experts warn they are not just inaccurate, but dangerous.
'Stop asking the public what they think'
Are opinion polls harmful? Every day, pollsters worldwide publish more surveys claiming to delve into the mind of the average voter. Now, some experts warn they are not just inaccurate, but dangerous.
In previous centuries, elections took a long time. The 1945 election took three weeks, as all the votes cast by soldiers fighting the final stages of World War Two had to make their way back to the UK.
Now, election night is over in seconds. The exit pollAn opinion poll released on election night itself, based on responses from voters emerging from polling stations. They are generally the most accurate opinion polls. comes out the moment voting ends, and it is almost never wrong. All the excitement, some grumble, is gone.
Polls have certainly revolutionised the electoral process. But some think they are doing more harm than good.
Opinion polls have been around for a long time. In the 19th Century, it was common for local newspapers to conduct surveys of the people in their own cities.
But it is only recently that polls have become so central to politics. Pollsters use surveys not only to predict elections, but to find out what people think about hot button issues.
One problem is that polls are treated as predictors when they are actually just indicators. They are a snapshot of public opinion on a certain topic at a certain time. But public opinion can change quickly.
Some think polls put too much pressure on politicians to do whatever is popular, rather than make a principled case for their beliefs. They have forgotten they also have the power to change public opinion.
And journalists also get hypnotised by polls. During elections, they ask politicians not about their ideas for improving the country, but about their place in the polls. Sometimes, it can seem as if the only purpose of the election is to verify the accuracy of the polling.
But others think polls are not the problem. It is useful to know what matters to ordinary people, otherwise politicians risk losing touch with them. Polls are not harmful, but we are not very good at interpreting them.
<h5 class=" eplus-wrapper" id="question">Are opinion polls harmful?</h5>
Yes: Opinion polls turn politics into little more than a race. They are distractions from the real business of politics: putting forward a set of beliefs and persuading people that you are right.
No: Polls are an essential part of political life. At a time when politicians are constantly criticised for being out of touch, it would be a mistake to take away one of the few means they have of listening to voters.
Or... Polls are neither good nor bad in themselves: they are just data points. The problem is that we do not have the data literacyThe ability to interpret data and statistics accurately. to understand them properly.
Exit poll - An opinion poll released on election night itself, based on responses from voters emerging from polling stations. They are generally the most accurate opinion polls.
Data literacy - The ability to interpret data and statistics accurately.
‘Stop asking the public what they think’

Glossary
Exit poll - An opinion poll released on election night itself, based on responses from voters emerging from polling stations. They are generally the most accurate opinion polls.
Data literacy - The ability to interpret data and statistics accurately.