Is Russia losing the war? The Red Army is floundering. Its casualties are soaring. Ukraine’s comedian president has become a hero and support is pouring in from the free world.
Seven reasons why Putin is struggling
Is Russia losing the war? The Red Army is floundering. Its casualties are soaring. Ukraine's comedian president has become a hero and support is pouring in from the free world.
Before he launched his war in Ukraine, Putin ordered his generals to plan a blitzkriegGerman word meaning an intense military campaign intended to bring about a swift victory. on Kyiv. Russian forces would advance on the Ukrainian capital from two sides, overwhelm the opposition, and end the war quickly.
Things have not gone according to plan. Russian forces are bogged down all over Ukraine as soldiers and civilians mount a heroic defence.
So what went wrong for Putin?
1. Ukrainian resistance
Ukrainians are determined to defend their freedoms and independence. For Russian soldiers, the whole country has become an enemy. The Ukrainian defence minister has said Russian forces "will be killed from every window in every Ukrainian city". Putin's original plan was to decapitate the Ukrainian government and replace a puppet leadership. But he can only do this if the Ukrainian people let him. And this seems increasingly unlikely to happen.
2. Zelensky the hero
Five years ago, Volodymyr Zelensky was a popular comedian. He has now emerged as one of the world's most charismatic leaders. The Ukrainian president has refused to leave the country even in the face of certain death if Russian forces capture him - and promised to take up arms personally to defend his country. He has rallied both Ukrainians and the international community behind him.
3. Abandoned by allies
Putin is used to being at loggerheads with the West, but his invasion has also cost him some friendships. The leaders of Hungary and CzechiaCurrent president Milos Zeman has come under fire for his pro-Russian stance., who have long been friendly towards Russia, have backed EU sanctions. China refused to back Russia in a UN security council vote condemning Russian aggression. Close ally Kazakhstan denied a Russian request to send military support for the invasion.
4. Economic collapse
The exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT global payment system caused a 40% fall in the value of the rubleThe Russian currency. It was the first currency in Europe to be decimalised, in 1704.. As a result, Moscow has shut down its stock markets until at least 5 March. Meanwhile, normal people queue from 5am to get money out of ATM machines, fearing that banks will start to limit withdrawals. This economic misery could easily turn into unrest.
5. Protests at home
Thousands have come out across Russia to protest against the war, braving Russia's brutal police state. Over 2,000 arrests have already been made, but protests continue. Many Russians have family members in Ukraine, and many more see Ukrainians as their cousins. And they are not happy with the mounting body count on their own side.
6. Logistical problems
Russia was banking on a lightning war against a divided country and a weak military. Instead, the Ukrainian people are united and Ukrainian forces have fought for every inch of soil. As a result, the Russian army is quickly running out of supplies. It is being forced to draft conscripts to replace the soldiers wounded or killed.
7. The world piles on
Russia has made a lot of enemies around the world. It has invaded Georgia and Chechnya. It has dropped bombs on Syria and Libya and intervened in the civil war in the Central African Republic. Ukraine has now invited foreign fighters to come and help them repulse the invaders. Many will be keen to take up the offer.
Despite all this, some think Putin has already won. He has proved that NATO will not intervene to protect a non-member ally like Ukraine from aggression. Overnight, satellite images showed Russia advancing on Kyiv with a huge convoy of armoured vehicles, tanks and other military equipment spanning more than 40 miles. Now, as the capital prepares for siege, many see Russia as a power to be feared once more.
Is Russia losing the war?
Yes: Putin's strategy is in tatters. The world is standing with Ukraine and its people are fighting like lions for their country's freedom. It is a shattering defeat for Russia and its propaganda.
No: War is full of setbacks and there is always a Plan B. Putin has never lost a war and he has been preparing for this one for years. Sooner or later, he will get his way.
Or... Russia might defeat Ukraine but it will be a Pyrrhic victoryA victory won at so great a cost that it feels like a defeat.. It has alienated its global allies and lost its economic ties with the West, and its neighbours now hate and fear it more than ever.
Keywords
Blitzkrieg - German word meaning an intense military campaign intended to bring about a swift victory.
Czechia - Current president Milos Zeman has come under fire for his pro-Russian stance.
Ruble - The Russian currency. It was the first currency in Europe to be decimalised, in 1704.
Pyrrhic victory - A victory won at so great a cost that it feels like a defeat.
Seven reasons why Putin is struggling
Glossary
Blitzkrieg - German word meaning an intense military campaign intended to bring about a swift victory.
Czechia - Current president Miloš Zeman has come under fire for his pro-Russian stance.
Ruble - The Russian currency. It was the first currency in Europe to be decimalised, in 1704.
Pyrrhic victory - A victory won at so great a cost that it feels like a defeat.