On 21 February, Vladimir Putin shocked the world. He declared he would recognise the independence of two breakaway states in the east of Ukraine, Donetsk and LuhanskTwo breakaway regions in the east of Ukraine. They have larger Russian populations than the rest of Ukraine, and Russia has granted many of them citizenship to pave the way for annexation and provide a pretext for invasion.. Yesterday morning, after months of bloody, grinding war, he captured Lysychansk, the last major city of Luhansk.

Ukraine has sworn to recapture Luhansk using long-range weaponry. But the country's defiance cannot mask the fact that Russia has scored a significant victory in its campaign to weaken and divide its smaller neighbour. If Russia can capture the whole of Donetsk as well, it will likely annex the two regions.

Western countries have condemned the invasion. They have imposed sanctions. They are arming Ukraine. But now they have to face the fact that there is little they can do to stop their rival to the east.

That is why some think the war marks the beginning of a new international order, one split between vast rival blocs.

We have seen this before. During the Cold WarA period of diplomatic conflict between blocs led by the USA and the USSR that lasted from 1947 until 1991, when the USSR collapsed., the world was divided between three conflicting visions of humanity's future.

On one side, the West advocated capitalism and liberal democracy. The Soviet bloc of eastern Europe championed socialismA kind of economy in which industry is owned in common, not by individuals., a regime run for and by the workers. And in Africa and the Middle East, many called for a different path, based on self-determination and the end of colonial domination.

In the early 1990s, the West won this battle of ideas. Suddenly, every country in the world seemed to be moving towards free markets and a democratic system of government. Even Russia opened its economy and began electing its leaders.

Many in the West believed things could only get better. There might be a few places where democracy and capitalism are slower to take hold, they thought, but ultimately the whole world would end up with the same ideas, and this would lead to lasting peace.

That dream lasted for thirty years. Now it has been shattered.

For the first time in decades there are conflicts that are beyond Western control. Russia is once again building up a sphere of influenceAn area over which a particular nation wields considerable control, to the exclusion of all others. in eastern Europe.

Relations with China are worsening as well. Some fear China may draw the lesson from the Ukraine war that the West is unable to prevent acts of aggression. That could be the incentive it needs to invade TaiwanAn island country in east Asia. China still claims to be the legitimate owner of Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government until recently claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China..

By funding infrastructure projects and forging cultural ties, China has been steadily building up its soft powerA kind of power based on shaping the preferences of others through appeal and incentives. It is contrasted with hard power, based on simple coercion. in central Asia and Africa for decades. That makes it a serious rival to western power.

Meanwhile, the USA looks less and less capable of fulfilling its traditional leadership role in the West. Bitter political struggles have left its political system unstable and widely discredited.

Europe has become economically dependent on both Russia and China. Even if the USA were ready to take charge, there is no guarantee the West would rally around its former leader.

The result could be a new world order characterised by rivalry between a declining USA and a rising China, with Europe sitting on the sidelines for the first time in centuries.

Yes: The war is the greatest ever challenge to Western hegemonyThe dominance of one social group or state over others.. It is now clear to other nations that we are in a multipolar world, and they will begin to act accordingly.

No: Russia is attacking Ukraine out of weakness, not strength. And China has no interest in world domination; unlike the USA and the Soviet Union, it is not seeking to export its political or economic model.

Or... There never was an era of stability after the Cold War. There have been wars in the BalkansA region of southern Europe, south of Austria and Hungary. It was traditionally seen as the meeting point between the Christian and Muslim worlds., Africa and the Middle East. Nations have always sought to dominate each other, and that has not changed.