Yesterday should have been a day of rejoicing in Kyiv. In a normal year, the streets would have been filled with people celebrating Ukraine's independence¹. But this time it was very different. Many had left the city, or retreated to bomb shelters. Everyone was afraid of a vicious Russian attack, and the government had told them to keep off the streets.

According to one of President Zelensky's advisers, Russia and the Putin regime "are really obsessed with dates and symbols, so it would be logical to be on the lookout". Reaching the six-month mark without victory must rankle withMake someone angry for a long time. The term comes from an old French word for a festering wound. the KremlinA central fortress in a city, used to refer to a complex in Moscow with five palaces and four cathedrals. The Russian government is run from within this citadel..

The invaders were also threatening revenge for the death of Darya DuginaThe daughter of Alexander Dugin, who has done much to encourage Putin in attacking Ukraine. She was killed on 20 August 2022.  - even though Ukraine denies any involvement. Some believe that the car bomb which killed her, which may have been aimed at her father, was planted by a Russian resistance movement.

One expert on Russia, Professor Luke March, says that Putin needs to claim "some sort of victory" in the coming months. Unless he does, ordinary Russians will feel that the effects of economic sanctions are too high a price to pay for the war.

But people in the West are also suffering the economic effects. Countries like Germany which depend heavily on Russia for energy are particularly worried. "And that's what Putin wants," says another expert, Professor Michael Clarke: "to play a strong enough game with gas supply and price that those countries give up supporting Ukraine."

At present the two armies look close to a stalemate. As the Financial Times puts it, "Neither side has the immediate upper hand. Neither side has shown any lasting appetite for negotiations². And neither side is giving up." Both are looking for a breakthrough before the harsh Ukrainian winterIt normally lasts from December to March., which will make any kind of fighting extremely difficult.

But Professor Clarke believes that "the pendulum is beginning to swing towards Ukraine". The war has entered its third phase: "The first was surviving, the second was holding, and the third is - with Western help - starting to push the Russians back around the southwest."

There is no lack of determination. "The people of Ukraine will not agree to anything short of the return of all territories, including Crimea and Donbas," says a Kyiv resident called Anton. "Ukrainians are capable of getting the job done on our own. Just give us the weaponry!"

Professor Clarke's assessment depends on crucial "ifs": "If Western support continues, if the Russians are still struggling to recruit troops³, and if Ukraine can successfully switch from defence to attack."

The Russians are certainly on the back foot in Crimea, where Ukrainian forces have been attacking arms depots and supply lines and even the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet. Putin's boast that Russia has "made a fortress out of Crimea" is starting to look very hollow. Now, tourists' videos of explosions in Crimea have gone viral, undermining his pretence that the war is going well.

Yes: His aim of conquering Ukraine now looks unobtainable. If he was hoping to foil Nato by keeping Ukraine out of it, he has actually achieved the opposite by making Sweden and Finland keen to join it.

No: Russian forces are still inflicting heavy damage on Ukraine and it will be extremely difficult to drive them out of the areas they are occupying. The war could drag on for ages.    

Or... Putin may not be facing military defeat, but he has done enormous harm to Russia's prestige and his own. His depleted army will not be able to fight another war in the foreseeable future