The streets of Kyiv should have been filled yesterday with people celebrating the anniversary of Ukraine's independence¹. But very few were out and about. Fearing a Russian attack, the government had told citizens to keep off the streets.

According to one of President Zelensky's advisers, President Putin is "really obsessed with dates... so it would be logical to be on the lookout." Reaching the six-month mark without victory must also rankle withMake someone angry for a long time. The term comes from an old French word for a festering wound. the KremlinA central fortress in a city, used to refer to a complex in Moscow with five palaces and four cathedrals. The Russian government is run from within this citadel..

Russia is also threatening revenge for the death of Darya DuginaThe daughter of Alexander Dugin, who has done much to encourage Putin in attacking Ukraine. She was killed on 20 August 2022.  - even though Ukraine denies any involvement.

One expert on Russia, Luke March, says Putin needs to claim "some sort of victory" soon. Otherwise, ordinary Russians will feel that economic sanctions are too high a price to pay for the war.

But people in the West are also suffering. Countries like Germany which depend on Russia for energy are very worried. "And that's what Putin wants," says another expert, Michael Clarke: "to play a strong enough game with gas supply and price that those countries give up supporting Ukraine."

It looks like a stalemate at present, but Clarke believes that "the pendulum is beginning to swing towards Ukraine". Neither side wants negotiations². Both hope for a breakthrough before the harsh Ukrainian winterIt normally lasts from December to March..

"The people of Ukraine will not agree to anything short of the return of all territories, including Crimea and Donbas," says Anton, a Kyiv resident. "Ukrainians are capable of getting the job done on our own. Just give us the weaponry!"

The Russians are struggling to recruit troops³ and are on the back foot in Crimea, where Ukrainian forces have been attacking supply lines. Putin's boast that Russia has "made a fortress out of Crimea" looks very hollow. Tourists' videos of explosions there have undermined his claim that the war is going well.

Yes: His aim of conquering Ukraine now looks unobtainable. If he was hoping to foil Nato by keeping Ukraine out of it, he has actually achieved the opposite by making Sweden and Finland keen to join it.

No: Russian forces are still inflicting heavy damage on Ukraine and it will be extremely difficult to drive them out of the areas they are occupying. The war could drag on for ages.    

Or... Putin may not be facing military defeat, but he has done enormous harm to Russia's prestige and his own. His depleted army will not be able to fight another war in the foreseeable future