Is Russia close to collapse? The largest country in the world is now closed off. Its economy is crumbling. Some are openly asking if Vladimir Putin might be assassinated.
'Putin is angry and frustrated right now'
Is Russia close to collapse? The largest country in the world is now closed off. Its economy is crumbling. Some are openly asking if Vladimir Putin might be assassinated.
Alone in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is seething. He is lonely, trapped and isolated, separated from even his closest advisers by absurdly long tables and rows of empty chairs.
Putin "has been stewing in a combustible combination of grievance and ambition for many years," CIAThe Central Intelligence Agency is a US government organisation that collects secret information about other countries. director William Burns told US politicians on Tuesday. Now, the tensions have reached a boiling point.
The situation is so grave that some in the West are even openly speculating that Putin may soon be assassinated. One is journalist Nigel Jones. The Russian leader has humiliatedPutin has snapped at and berated his advisers and ministers when they deviate from official messages. many of his inner circle.
His actions have hurt them economically. Could Putin be brutally murdered by his own advisers like Julius CaesarJulius Caesar was stabbed to death by a group of Roman senators at a senate meeting in 44BC.?
For Jones, "the best hope for ending this crisis may well rest with bad men acting to bring down the still worse and possibly deranged dictator who is leading them and Russia into the abyss".
Indeed, beyond the walls of the Kremlin, Russia is increasingly a country in crisis. Both the USA and UK have bannedBoth countries committed to banning Russian oil imports on Tuesday. Taxation on oil accounts for 17% of Russia's federal government revenue. Russian oil. One roubleThe Russian rouble has lost 40% of its value against the dollar, and is expected to fall further. is now worth less than an American penny.
In the space of two weeks, signs of Russia's progress since the Soviet era have been virtually eliminated. Young, middle-class Russians are used to travel and consumerism. Now they can no longer watch films on Netflix, buy furniture in IKEA, fly to London on holiday or even eat a burger at McDonald's.
Some are becoming angry. Protests have continued on the streets, despite beatings and arrests. In response, Putin has cracked down on free speechThe idea that people can say what they think without any fear of being punished or silenced. . New patrols in Moscow are searching people's phones for blocked news and social media. Some onlookers are asking: in this new state of economic uncertainty and oppression, how much longer can Russia survive?
But others say reports of Russia's collapse are premature.
The 12,700 protesters arrested since the invasion of Ukraine make up only a vanishingly small proportion of Russia's 144 million people.
There is no doubt: economic sanctions are hurting ordinary people. But Russians are used to hardship. "Yes, some Russians may blame Putin," warns journalist Martin Wolf. "But a huge number might blame the West, instead."
The West must "stop running from the truth that Russians who oppose Putin are in the absolute minority", adds Kateryna Kruk, Ukraine manager at Facebook. Russia is a vast landmass, with its own water, wheat, oil and gas. Its people can live without McDonald's.
As for Putin himself, his 24/7 security team provides excellent protection. He may be isolated, but he is also "extraordinary" and "clever", says the broadcaster Andrew Marr. He could not have survived for 22 years without a strategic and cunning mind.
As economic sanctionsEconomic measures designed to punish a country, for instance by excluding it from trade. begin to bite, Russia's fortunes will directly impact the outcome of the war in Ukraine. But Russia's status as a major power means its collapse would affect more than just a single region. Its future affects the future of the entire world.
Is Russia close to collapse?
Yes: Its leader is incoherent and alone, outmanoeuvred by an unexpectedly strong response from the West. Its economy is in free fall. Putin's war in Ukraine was a major mistake for himself and for Russia.
No: Russia is a global power, with its own plentiful resources. Many of its people still faithfully support Putin. The war will not change their minds, and Russia will not be undone by sanctions alone.
Or... Russia may not be imminently close to collapse, but much of the progress it has made is being reversed. Putin's legacy of stability and prosperity is in doubt. Russians may not tolerate it forever.
Keywords
CIA - The Central Intelligence Agency is a US government organisation that collects secret information about other countries.
Humiliated - Putin has snapped at and berated his advisers and ministers when they deviate from official messages.
Julius Caesar - Julius Caesar was stabbed to death by a group of Roman senators at a senate meeting in 44BC.
Banned - Both countries committed to banning Russian oil imports on Tuesday. Taxation on oil accounts for 17% of Russia's federal government revenue.
Rouble - The Russian rouble has lost 40% of its value against the dollar, and is expected to fall further.
Free speech - The idea that people can say what they think without any fear of being punished or silenced.
Sanctions - Economic measures designed to punish a country, for instance by excluding it from trade.
‘Putin is angry and frustrated right now’
Glossary
CIA - The Central Intelligence Agency is a US government organisation that collects secret information about other countries.
Humiliated - Putin has snapped at and berated his advisers and ministers when they deviate from official messages.
Julius Caesar - Julius Caesar was stabbed to death by a group of Roman senators at a senate meeting in 44BC.
Banned - Both countries committed to banning Russian oil imports on Tuesday. Taxation on oil accounts for 17% of Russia’s federal government revenue.
Rouble - The Russian rouble has lost 40% of its value against the dollar, and is expected to fall further.
Free speech - The idea that people can say what they think without any fear of being punished or silenced.
Sanctions - Economic measures designed to punish a country, for instance by excluding it from trade.