It was perhaps the most dramatic night in modern political history. On Sunday, the Pakistani parliament passed a vote of no confidence in prime minister Imran KhanA former international cricketer who became the prime minister of Pakistan in 2018, until April 2022.. In doing so, they forced him out of office.

His fall has averted an immediate crisis. But the country is gripped by a more serious long-term crisis.

Khan's leadership has seen the country spiral into chaos. Terror attacks have become more frequent, inflation is rocketing. Some fear that if the political chaos continues, the powerful Pakistani military could step in and declare martial lawThe temporary suspension of civil law and its replacement with direct military control of society and its institutions..

This would be bad news for Pakistan, which has suffered years of repression by military governments. Military intervention would likely increase tensions with India.

The bad blood between India and Pakistan goes back a long way. Since both countries were founded in 1947 they have fought four wars, the most recent in 1999. From 2018 until last year, the two sides engaged in skirmishesA minor fight or battle.  at the border that claimed dozens of lives. India also accuses Pakistan of secretly supporting terrorists in Indian KashmirFrom 1947 to 1949, India and Pakistan fought over ownership of Kashmir, which the British had not assigned to either state. By the end of the war, India controlled two-thirds of the province, Pakistan the remaining third..

There are other factors at play.

There have long been tensions between India and China, especially over their shared border in the HimalayasA vast mountain range in Asia separating the Indian subcontinent from Tibet. It has some of the world's highest peaks.. In the 1960s the countries fought two wars over the border. In the last ten years, these disputes have flared up.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is worth around $62bn and promises to create millions of jobs. Some observers suggest Pakistan has refused to condemn China's treatment of Uighur Muslims so it can maintain its strong economic relationship. 

With Chinese investments also flooding into Myanmar, on its eastern border, India fears becoming completely encircled by Chinese power.

What makes matters still tenser is that India and Pakistan both have nuclear arsenals.

While India has a "no first useA policy of never launching a nuclear strike except in retaliation for a strike from another country." policy for its nuclear weapons, this has come under pressure in recent years. The country's last two defence ministers have questioned the policy and suggested that it might be abandoned. Pakistan, like most other nuclear powers, does not have a "no first use" policy at all.

So, the political crisis has the potential not just to cause a war between two nuclear powers, but also to bring in a third nuclear giant, China. From there, war could escalate into a global conflict.

Yes: Pakistan and India have been on the edge of war for years. Now China is involved as well. A conflict between these vast economic powerhouses could affect the whole international community.

No: Neither India nor Pakistan wants a full-blown war. If there is fighting between the two, it will be a short border dispute like other recent conflicts. It is unlikely to have wider repercussions.

Or... World War III might not start on the India-Pakistan border, but these events are a reminder that the world is becoming a less stable place. Wars will be ever more frequent in the 21st Century.