Vladimir Putin cut a desperate, diminished figure as he addressed the Russian people yesterday. His face distorted by hatred, he accused NatoThe North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members. of threatening Russia with nuclear weapons. "Our country also has a variety of weapons of destruction," he said. "If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without question use all the means at our disposal... this is not a bluff."

His statement showed the weird distortion of truth that the world has come to expect from him. Nato has made no such threat - and not even Ukraine has showed any inclination to invade Russian territory.

But his mention of nuclear weapons has alarmed many people. And the rest of his speech indicated how he might find an excuse to use them.

Since Ukraine's dramatic success in recapturing territory, experts have speculated on how Putin might react.¹ "How does he escape the fate of the autocratA leader who rules by force and with absolute power, without the permission of others. who fails," asked William Hague in The Times, "that sudden demise when the army refuses orders, or the crowds stop being afraid?"

Many feared that he would decide to raise the stakes - which he has. First, the DumaThe Russian law-making body., which he controls, rushed through new laws increasing penalties for soldiers who desert, refuse to fight or "voluntarily surrender".

Then, in yesterday's speech, he announced a "partial mobilisation" of the armed forces. Three hundred thousand reservistsA member of a military reserve force. In peacetime, they have non-military jobs. would be immediately called up.

More worrying was his announcement that referendums would be held in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine as soon as possible. People there will be asked whether they want to be part of Russia - and nobody doubts that the vote will be rigged to give the answer "yes".

Putin could then pretend that, in trying to reclaim its own territory, Ukraine was attacking Russian soil - and that he was entitled to use nuclear weapons in its "defence".

Ukraine, of course, has already attacked targets in Crimea, despite Russia claiming it as its territory. But with Putin facing intense criticism at home,² the situation is more volatileCan change quickly and unpredictably. .  

Both these moves might backfire. Observers believe that mobilisation is a sign of weakness, reflecting the heavy casualties Russia has suffered: while the KremlinThe official residence of the president of the Russian Federation, the Kremlin is used as a metonym for the government, in the same way as the White House and Downing Street refer to the US and UK governments. says that 5,937 soldiers have died, Western estimates put the dead and wounded at 80,000.

Throwing in extra forces could undermine support for the war in Russia, while making little difference on the battlefield. One expert, Mike Martin, argues in the Daily Telegraph that the new recruits would be even more badly trained and poorly equipped than the existing army:

"Putin is sending these people to their deaths. The Ukrainian armed forces have killed tens of thousands of professional Russian soldiers with the best equipment that Russia could supply. What will they do with this mobilised reserve?"

As for using nuclear weapons, "This is the craziest option," according to William Hague. "It would unite the whole globe against Putin."

Yes: He has staked his political life on defeating Ukraine, so he will stop at nothing to achieve that goal. Since he does not care about other people, he is happy to risk any number of Russian lives.

No: He knows that even his own people would not support him if he provoked a nuclear confrontation. He relies on the leaders of the armed forces, who would almost certainly act to remove him from power.

Or... The conflict would not become a "world" war because no country would support Russia. Its allies would be afraid of becoming targets, while neutral countries would turn against it.  

Nato - The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members.

Autocrat - A leader who rules by force and with absolute power, without the permission of others.

Duma - The Russian law-making body.

Reservists - A member of a military reserve force. In peacetime, they have non-military jobs.

Volatile - Can change quickly and unpredictably.

The Kremlin - The official residence of the president of the Russian Federation, the Kremlin is used as a metonym for the government, in the same way as the White House and Downing Street refer to the US and UK governments.