Vladimir Putin looked desperate on TV yesterday. NatoThe North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members., he claimed, was threatening Russia with nuclear weapons. In reply, he said, "we will without question use all the means at our disposal... this is not a bluff."

Nato has made no such threat. But Putin alarmed a lot of people by mentioning nuclear weapons. And the rest of his speech showed how he might find an excuse to use them.

The Russian army's recent humiliation in Ukraine has led him to raise the stakes.¹ In yesterday's speech, he announced that 300,000 reservistsA member of a military reserve force. In peacetime, they have non-military jobs. would be added to the army.

More worryingly, he announced that referendums would be held in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine. People there will be asked whether they want to be part of Russia - and nobody doubts that the vote will be rigged to give the answer "yes".

Putin could then pretend that, by fighting for its own territory, Ukraine was attacking Russian soil. He would then be entitled to use nuclear weapons in its "defence".

Both these moves might backfire. By recruiting more soldiers he is admitting that the war is going badly.² While the Kremlin says that 5,937 soldiers have died, Western experts estimate that 80,000 have been killed or wounded.

Putting more soldiers at risk will make people in Russia very worried. And it may not help the army very much. One expert, Mike Martin, argues in the Daily Telegraph that the new recruits would be badly trained and poorly equipped:

"Putin is sending these people to their deaths. The Ukrainian armed forces have killed tens of thousands of professional Russian soldiers with the best equipment that Russia could supply. What will they do with this mobilised reserve?"

As for using nuclear weapons, "This is the craziest option," according to William Hague in The Times: "It would unite the whole globe against Putin."

Yes: He has staked his political life on defeating Ukraine, so he will stop at nothing to achieve that goal. Since he does not care about other people, he is happy to risk any number of Russian lives.

No: He knows that even his own people would not support him if he provoked a nuclear confrontation. He relies on the leaders of the armed forces, who would almost certainly act to remove him from power.

Or... The conflict would not become a "world" war because no country would support Russia. Its allies would be afraid of becoming targets, while neutral countries would turn against it.