Three children sit in a police van, their faces against the bars. 

Wrapped in hats, they are clutching placards with hearts and the Ukrainian flag. The words are clear: "No war" and "Russia plus Ukraine equals love". 

The Russian protesters are driven into the freezing Moscow night. 

Pressure on Vladimir Putin is mounting. Russian soldiers are dying. He is a pariah in the West, accused of committing war crimes by cluster bombingCluster ammunitions spread small bombs over a wide area. Intentionally targeting civilians and attacks on military targets that cause excessive civilian casualties are both considered war crimes under international law.  civilians. 

As sanctions bite, MuscovitesCitizens of Moscow.  are queueing at banks to withdraw their savings. Several oligarchsAfter the collapse of the Soviet Union, most of the country's economy fell into the hands of corrupt businessmen who became known as oligarchs. Putin cemented his early popularity by cracking down on these oligarchs, although he has since created a new oligarchy that is loyal to him. have spoken out against the war after losing billions. And Russians risk jail to protest. 

On Tuesday, in his first State of the UnionAn annual message delivered by the president of the United States on the condition of the nation.  address, President Biden warned the Russian leader "he has no idea what is coming". 

"When the history of this era is written, Putin's war on Ukraine will have left Russia weaker and the rest of the world stronger," Biden declared.

Will this war end Putin's reign? "As pressure mounts, nemesis looms," says British writer Edward Lucas. "A palace coup or a popular uprising, once vanishingly unlikely, becomes conceivable."

"If the history of strongmen is any indication, it may be downhill for the Russian leader from here," adds an American journalist. Could Vladimir Putin be overthrown by his own people or put on trial for war crimes in the Hague like Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic.

Others say these scenarios are improbable. "We haven't really seen any cracks in the political elite yet," says Russia expert Alexandra Vacroux. 

Russians are used to hardship. People can remember empty supermarket shelves. 

Millions of Russians get their news from state-run television, where presenters blame Ukrainian nationalists for using civilians as human shields. Many still fiercely supportIn favour of.  Vladimir Putin. 

"When you try to reason with an average person in Russia, they might say something like: 'The TV is right and you're wrong. Also - you're probably an agent of the CIAThe Central Intelligence Agency is a US government organisation that collects secret information about other countries.'," writes Sergey Faldin, a young Russian journalist. 

Those who dare to protest are rounded up and jailed. Others are scared into silence. 

Faldin hopes that as Russia runs into hard times, "people will not be afraid any more". Putin's fate, whatever it is, will change history not only for the people of Russia, but for the entire world.

Yes: Conflicts once led to an outpouring of domestic support for Putin. This time, he has made a mistake. Hardship, oppression and the death of their soldiers will push Russians to fight for change.

No: Putin rules Russia with an iron fist. Brutal crackdowns will prevent protests from growing. And not all Russians are against the invasion. Millions simply do not want a change in leader.

Or... Change takes time. We may not see a coup in the next week, or even the next year. But the costs of war will eventually take their toll, leaving Russia weaker and Putin in danger.