Is predicting the future a skill we can learn? Another disaster has shaken some of the world’s most vulnerable people. Some think we can use science to predict and prevent them.
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Ninety seconds that changed 500,000 lives
Is predicting the future a skill we can learn? Another disaster has shaken some of the world's most vulnerable people. Some think we can use science to predict and prevent them.
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What's happening?
On Friday 3 February, Dutch man Frank Hoogerbeets tweeted a map of TurkeyOfficially the Republic of Turkiye, a country that lies partly in Europe and partly in Asia at the east of the Mediterranean. . "Sooner or later there will be an earthquakeThe shaking of the surface of the Earth after a sudden burst of energy at a tectonic plate boundary. in this region," he wrote.
Just three days later, a huge earthquake hit Turkey and SyriaA Middle Eastern country that was the site of much of the fighting during the Crusades..
The earthquake has torn down thousands of homes and killed more than 5,000 people. Half a million people's lives have been changed.
Find out more
Now, some are looking to Frank Hoogerbeets to predict the next big disaster to hit the Earth. Others say he just got lucky - he also believes in many ideas scientists say are wrong.
Earth is an uncertain place. There are illnesses and wars.
Superforecasters are a group who believe they can see these big problems coming. They never say for certain that something is happening - but say how likely they think it is based on past events.
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Is predicting the future a skill we can learn?
Yes! There are always signs we can pick up on before something happens. If you think about it scientifically, you can learn to predict the future.
No! The world is a random place. Things happen without warning. We can say something is likely or unlikely, but we cannot say something will 100% happen.
Keywords
Turkey - Officially the Republic of Turkiye, a country that lies partly in Europe and partly in Asia at the east of the Mediterranean.
Earthquake - The shaking of the surface of the Earth after a sudden burst of energy at a tectonic plate boundary.
Syria - A Middle Eastern country that was the site of much of the fighting during the Crusades.
Ninety seconds that changed 500,000 lives
Fading hopes: The search is continuing for people trapped underneath the rubble. Glossary
Turkey - Officially the Republic of Türkiye, a country that lies partly in Europe and partly in Asia at the east of the Mediterranean.
Earthquake - The shaking of the surface of the Earth after a sudden burst of energy at a tectonic plate boundary.
Syria - A Middle Eastern country that was the site of much of the fighting during the Crusades.