For more than a week, protests have been raging in KazakhstanThis Central Asian country, which lies between Russia and China, is the ninth largest country in the world by territory. It has many natural resources, including minerals and fossil fuels.. Now, it looks as though President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is ready to let the violence go further. On Friday, he told his security forces to "use lethalto cause death force without warning".

The protests began last week when fuel prices shot up in the capital and around the country. They have grown into wider political protests against Tokayev's regime. Around 2,500 Russian troops have now entered the country to crush protesters. But some suspect that Russia could use the crisis to strengthen its influence on its former colony.

Until 1991 Kazakhstan was a part of the Soviet UnionOfficially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). A powerful group of communist republics, the biggest being Russia, that existed from 1922 to 1991. . It became independent when the USSR collapsed, but still has close ties to Russia. Despite a poor record on civil freedoms and human rights, its government has remained stable and achieved economic success.

Until now. The protests have now developed into a full political crisis. Around 4,000 people have been arrested. Hundreds have been injured or killed. The streets are littered with burned out cars.

Many believe Vladimir PutinRussia's ruler since 2000. He is a strong opponent of the West. is using crises in former USSR states to gain more control and recreate a kind of Russian empire. Mukhtar Ablyazov is an exiled Kazakh tycoon. He says "Kazakhstan is now under the boot of Putin".

He is not alone. Many analysts believe that Putin is pursuing ambitions to rise Russia to the status of major world power. The leader has been gathering troops near UkraineA country in Eastern Europe. It was invaded by Russia in February 2022. . Around 100,000 soldiers are already stationed on the border. Some predict Putin is planning an invasion - the second since 2014.

Meanwhile, there is widespread nostalgia for the Soviet Union in Russia. Joseph StalinDictator of the Soviet Union. Stalin has been accused of numerous human rights abuses, including sentencing around a million political opponents to death and prison. regularly tops public polls of the greatest historical figures. And Putin himself calls the fall of the USSR the "greatest political catastrophe" in history.

But some believe Putin is not planning to expand. They argue he fears protests just as much as the Kazakh leader does. If that is the case, perhaps he is simply trying to defend his power and make himself look strong in the eyes of the Russian people.

And if Putin is intent on re-establishing a Russian empire, it could bring him into conflict with the West. Ukraine is becoming a major flashpoint. Talks between Russian and US diplomats are set to begin today, but a treaty is not certain.

Yes: Putin's foreign interventions show that he is a master political strategist who is bent on restoring Russia to its former glory.

No: There is no great master plan. Putin's military aggression is just posturing for popularity, tapping into nostalgia for a time when Russia was a global superpower.

Or...? Even if Putin's real goal is just to stay in power, that may still lead him to expansionist wars. Leaders are driven to war by domestic weakness just as often as military confidence and ambition.