Friends like these

French is something of a vague language. It makes little distinction between "expect" and "wait for", for example. Mulberries and blackberries are both "mures". "Boring" and "annoying" are the same word.

So it should perhaps be no surprise that the comments made by French president Emmanuel MacronThe current president of France, nicknamed "Jupiter" after the chief of the Roman deities for his top-down manner of governance. in China this week, in which he said Europe should not be "followers" of the USA in its disputes with its Asian rival, have been interpreted in such wildly different ways.

Critics accuse him of cuddling up to Xi JinpingThe president of China, who has concentrated power and removed term limits allowing him to serve for life., abandoning TaiwanAn island country in east Asia. China still claims to be the legitimate owner of Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government until recently claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China., and breaking ranks with the rest of the western world.

Macron and his supporters insist he is not calling for a break with the USA. He just believes Europe should pursue its own aims, and try to restrain the growing enmityFeelings of hate. between the superpowers of east and west.

Whatever he meant to say, his comments have touched a nerve - because the USA fears its grip on Europe is slipping.

For decades, the USA could count on its European allies to stand by it in the Cold WarA period of diplomatic conflict between blocs led by the USA and the USSR that lasted from 1947 until 1991, when the USSR collapsed. against the USSRThe United Socialist Soviet Republic, the USA's main rival in the Cold War before it collapsed and broke up into a number of smaller states in 1991., then in conflicts in the BalkansA region of southern Europe, south of Austria and Hungary. It was traditionally seen as the meeting point between the Christian and Muslim worlds. and the Middle East.

Today, however, things are different. The USA was shocked by its European partners' sluggish response to the invasion of Ukraine. It suspected Germany and France were too intent on keeping natural gasHydrocarbon-rich gases that are found naturally in the atmosphere. A fossil fuel energy source. flowing from Russia to stand with its ally.

Europe is, if anything, more dependent on China than on Russia. China accounts for 20% of EU imports, including almost all its raw materials for green technologies, like lithium and magnesium.¹

And in Europe, public opinion has turned against the USA. The erratic tenure of Donald Trump, and attempts by his supporters to overturn his election defeat, have cast doubt on its political stability. Fully one-third of Europeans say Americans cannot be trusted to make good decisions.²

So some fear that if the USA and China end up at loggerheadsIn dispute with - likely stemming from a 17th-century word for a tool used for heating liquids. Loggerheads is also the name of two British villages., Europe will not necessarily side with its old ally.

But others say nothing much has changed. After all, France has never been keen on playing second fiddle to the USA.

Its most influential president, Charles de GaulleA French army officer and politician who led the French government in exile during World War Two before becoming president., tried to avoid dependence on the United States and prevent the emergence of a bipolar world political order split between the USA and the USSR. This idea still has a lot of pull in France, and many of de Gaulle's successors have sought to emulate it.

That means it has sometimes refused to go along with US interests. Although it was one of the founding members of NatoThe North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was founded in 1949 to unite Western democracies in Europe and North America against the perceived growing threat of the USSR. It now has 31 members., in 1966 France withdrew from its military command structures, returning only in 2009. And in 2003 it refused to support the US invasion of Iraq.

So, some argue, France is just playing its usual role in the grand Western alliance. They say what is really significant about Macron's comments is that he did not propose an alternative European policy towards China. 

Instead, they argue, he is just doing what France always does: seeking independence from the USA, but with no real idea of what to do with it.

Yes: The EU might have been slow to act on Russia, but it has rallied round. Now it is trying to reduce its dependence on China as well. The US still rules the roost.

No: Many in Europe are starting to wonder how much they benefit from supporting US interests. Some think they might benefit more from a bipolar world where US and Chinese power counterbalance each other.

Or... Europe might chafe against US demands, but it is not certain what it can achieve through a more independent foreign policy. It certainly does not want to become a vassalA person or state in a subordinate position to another. of China. So it will probably default back to the USA.