Will he hang onto his job? Pundits are divided. Some say this week’s elections will spell the end for Britain’s PM. Others believe that he will cling on for another few years.
Johnson's 'last chance' in local elections
Will he hang onto his job? Pundits are divided. Some say this week's elections will spell the end for Britain's PM. Others believe that he will cling on for another few years.
As the clock strikes 10pm and the last voters cast their ballots, Boris Johnson will turn on the television in Number 10 Downing Street and begin the nervous wait to discover his fate.
On Thursday, Britons are heading to the pollsWhen people are asked what their opinion is on a certain topic or who they are voting for in an election. . Voters across the country will elect 4,360 councillors, including every seat in Scotland, Wales and London. The winners will be responsible for everything from bus routes and bin collections to mental health services and schemes for fighting climate change.
The elections are local, but pundits agree: the results are of national importance. Many are convinced it will be a bad night for the Conservatives. One poll even suggests the party could lose 800 councillors.
If the predictions are right, it will be the latest blow for a prime minister under fire.
Last month, Boris Johnson was fined by the police for attending his own birthday celebration during lockdown restrictions. Polls show that 80% of Britons believe he lied about lockdown-breaking parties, and the full report by civil servant Sue GrayA senior civil servant who entered the public eye for the first time when she was tasked with investigating lockdown breaches in government. In 2024, she was briefly Keir Starmer's chief of staff. is yet to come.
Conservative backbenchersMembers of Parliament who are not part of the government or shadow cabinet. They sit on the backbenches of the House of Commons. are divided on how to tackle key issues such as the cost-of-livingSome think the government should spend more money to support people as energy and food costs rise. Others think they should cut spending and taxes. crisis. In 2019, Johnson was elected on a simple promise: "get Brexit done". Critics say the end of lockdown restrictions has exposed the lack of a clear plan on what to do next.
Meanwhile, his party is embroiled in a sexismA belief that one sex is superior to or more valuable than another sex. row after a Conservative MP was accused of watching pornography in the House of Commons.
Now, some say poor local election results could be fatal for the prime minister. "The aftermath is likely to be the moment of maximum danger for the PM," one journalist said last week. Tory MPs who decided to stay silent during the election campaign could submit letters of no confidenceIn order to trigger a vote of no confidence, 15% of Conservative MPs must write a letter to the head of the 1922 Committee, the committee of backbench Tory MPs. in Johnson when the results are in.
But others say reports of Boris Johnson's downfall are premature.
Defeats in between general elections are far from uncommon for ruling parties. And the prime minister looks determined to stay in power.
In May 2019, his predecessor Theresa May resigned as Conservative leader less than a month after the party lost 1,300 seats in local elections. It seems unlikely that Johnson will do the same. This February, he declared his intention to lead the party into the next election and be prime minister until 2029.
There are no clear candidates to take over the job. Until recently, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi SunakA British politician who was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2022 to 2024. looked like Johnson's most likely replacement. But in April, Sunak too was fined by the police for breaking Covid-19 lockdown laws.
Moreover, many MPs are reluctant to start a new leadership battle while the world responds to the Russia-Ukraine war. "We're in a proxyA person or country used to represent someone else. war with Russia," one voter told reporters in London. "And the prime minister's essentially leading the free world."
The stakes are high. As voters walk to the polls on Thursday, many believe the future of the prime minister, and perhaps even the future of the entire nation, is in their hands.
Will he hang onto his job?
Yes: As one former Labour MP put it, Boris Johnson is a "survivor". He has resisted countless calls to resign. Losing some local council seats will not stop him from clinging to power.
No: Johnson is facing a police investigation, a rebellion among his own MPs and the fury of the public. No leader could sustain this pressure for long. If he does not resign, he will soon be ousted.
Or... The local elections may not be the fatal wound for the Prime Minister, but there are other trials coming. He may hang on for now, but he will not lead the Conservatives into the 2024 election.
Keywords
Polls - When people are asked what their opinion is on a certain topic or who they are voting for in an election.
Sue Gray - A senior civil servant who entered the public eye for the first time when she was tasked with investigating lockdown breaches in government. In 2024, she was briefly Keir Starmer's chief of staff.
Backbenchers - Members of Parliament who are not part of the government or shadow cabinet. They sit on the backbenches of the House of Commons.
Cost-of-living - Some think the government should spend more money to support people as energy and food costs rise. Others think they should cut spending and taxes.
Sexism - A belief that one sex is superior to or more valuable than another sex.
Letters of no confidence - In order to trigger a vote of no confidence, 15% of Conservative MPs must write a letter to the head of the 1922 Committee, the committee of backbench Tory MPs.
Rishi Sunak - A British politician who was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2022 to 2024.
Proxy - A person or country used to represent someone else.
Johnson’s ‘last chance’ in local elections
Glossary
Polls - When people are asked what their opinion is on a certain topic or who they are voting for in an election.
Sue Gray - A senior civil servant who entered the public eye for the first time when she was tasked with investigating lockdown breaches in government. In 2024, she was briefly Keir Starmer's chief of staff.
Backbenchers - Members of Parliament who are not part of the government or shadow cabinet. They sit on the backbenches of the House of Commons.
Cost-of-living - Some think the government should spend more money to support people as energy and food costs rise. Others think they should cut spending and taxes.
Sexism - A belief that one sex is superior to or more valuable than another sex.
Letters of no confidence - In order to trigger a vote of no confidence, 15% of Conservative MPs must write a letter to the head of the 1922 Committee, the committee of backbench Tory MPs.
Rishi Sunak - A British politician who was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2022 to 2024.
Proxy - A person or country used to represent someone else.