As the clock strikes 10pm and the last voters cast their ballots, Boris Johnson will begin the nervous wait to discover his fate. 

On Thursday, Britons are heading to the pollsWhen people are asked what their opinion is on a certain topic or who they are voting for in an election. . Voters will elect 4,360 councillors, including every seat in Scotland, Wales and London. The winners will be responsible bus routes, bin collections, mental health services, fighting climate change, and more. 

The elections are local, but the results are of national importance. Many are convinced it will be a bad night for Conservatives. One poll suggests the party could lose 800 councillors. 

Last month, Boris Johnson was fined for attending his birthday celebration during lockdown restrictions. The full report by civil servant Sue GrayA senior civil servant who entered the public eye for the first time when she was tasked with investigating lockdown breaches in government. In 2024, she was briefly Keir Starmer's chief of staff. is yet to come. 

Conservative backbenchersMembers of Parliament who are not part of the government or shadow cabinet. They sit on the backbenches of the House of Commons.  are divided on how to tackle key issues such as the cost-of-livingSome think the government should spend more money to support people as energy and food costs rise. Others think they should cut spending and taxes.  crisis. In 2019, Johnson was elected on a simple promise: "get Brexit done". Critics say the end of lockdown restrictions has exposed the lack of a clear plan. 

Meanwhile, his party is embroiled in a sexismA belief that one sex is superior to or more valuable than another sex. row after a Conservative MP was accused of watching pornography in the House of Commons. 

Some say poor local election results could be fatal for the prime minister. "The aftermath is likely to be the moment of maximum danger for the PM," one journalist said. Tory MPs who decided to stay silent during the election campaign could submit letters of no confidenceIn order to trigger a vote of no confidence, 15% of Conservative MPs must write a letter to the head of the 1922 Committee, the committee of backbench Tory MPs.  in Johnson when the results are in. 

Others say reports of Boris Johnson's downfall are premature. 

The prime minister looks determined to stay in power. 

In May 2019, his predecessor Theresa May resigned as Conservative leader less than a month after the party lost 1,300 seats in local elections. It seems unlikely Johnson will do the same.

There are no clear candidates to take over the job. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi SunakA British politician who was the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2022 to 2024. looked like Johnson's most likely replacement. But in April, Sunak too was fined by the police for breaking Covid-19 lockdown laws. 

Moreover, many MPs are reluctant to start a new leadership battle while the world responds to the Russia-Ukraine war.

As voters walk to the polls on Thursday, many believe the future of the prime minister, and perhaps even the future of the entire nation, is in their hands.

Yes: As one former Labour MP put it, Boris Johnson is a "survivor". He has resisted countless calls to resign. Losing some local council seats will not stop him from clinging to power.

No: Johnson is facing a police investigation, a rebellion among his own MPs and the fury of the public. No leader could sustain this pressure for long. If he does not resign, he will soon be ousted.

Or... The local elections may not be the fatal wound for the Prime Minister, but there are other trials coming. He may hang on for now, but he will not lead the Conservatives into the 2024 election.