New dawn

A ripple of cheers and applause broke out when Elnaz Rekabi stepped up to compete in the Asian Climbing Competition finals in Seoul on Sunday. Some onlookers might have wondered why. With her hair tied back in a pony-tail, Rekabi looked like any other contestant.

But that is precisely what made the moment so extraordinary. Rekabi was representing IranA country in Western Asia, officially called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has a population of 84 million. , which requires all its athletes to wear a hijabA head covering worn by some Muslim women. when competing. By refusing to cover her head, Rekabi seemed to be engaging in a silent act of defiance.

It has already cost her dear. Rekabi has since gone missing, joining the hundreds of Iranians who have been disappeared by the regime since protests broke out across the country last month.¹ Yesterday, a post appeared on her Instagram account claiming her hijab had fallen off "inadvertently".

In spite of this, the protests continue. The young people of Iran say they will not rest until they have won their freedoms.

They are not the only ones displaying great bravery in the face of repression. Last Thursday, a man hung banners from a bridge in Beijing calling for the removal of Chinese leader Xi JinpingThe president of China, who has concentrated power and removed term limits allowing him to serve for life..

The man was arrested and the authorities censored any discussion of the protest on social media. But the hashtag "I saw it" was viewed more than 180,000 times before being shut down as well.

Across the world, people today are fighting for freedom and democracy. Now one man thinks he has finally been proved right.

In 1992, Francis FukuyamaAn American political scientist best known for his argument that the whole world will one day embrace liberal democracy. wrote a book called The End of History.² He claimed that most of history had been defined by the struggle between different ideas: CatholicismA religious denomination within Christianity, with 1.2 billion believers worldwide. vs ProtestantismThe umbrella term for a wide variety of movements that trace their roots to a schism in the Catholic Church in the early 16th Century. Protestants are united by a number of core beliefs, but there is much diversity among its movements., absolute monarchyA monarchy in which the king or queen rules the country by themselves. vs democracyA system of government based on the idea of rule by the people., communismThe system of organising society so that all property is owned by the community and everyone receives things according to their needs. vs capitalismA form of economy characterised by private property and competition between companies..

But the most recent of these struggles had just ended in decisive defeat for communism, when the USSRThe United Socialist Soviet Republic, the USA's main rival in the Cold War before it collapsed and broke up into a number of smaller states in 1991. broke up and the eastern blocA group of socialist states that were influenced by the USSR during the Cold War. transitioned to democracy.

For Fukuyama, the lesson was clear. One idea had finally won out: liberal democracyA system of government in which governments are elected and the rights and freedoms of the individual is protected.. He was confident that the rest of the world would start moving towards representation and individual liberties.

Many thought he was proved wrong immediately. Within a few years, Vladimir Putin was in power in Russia. Other eastern bloc countries, like Hungary and Poland, have since elected populistThe term comes from the People's Party, which operated in the USA in the 1890s. Now, it is often used to refer to any movement that makes a distinction between the "people" and the corrupt "establishment". leaders. Authoritarian China is now a superpower.

Meanwhile, many of the world's older democracies seem to be teetering. Leaders with autocraticRelating to a ruler with total power. tendencies have been elected in India, the USA and Italy.

And democratic movements around the world have been crushed. MyanmarThe largest country in mainland south-east Asia, formerly known as Burma. It is an ethnically diverse place, something that has often resulted in fierce conflict. was a democracy for just seven years before the military seized control again last year. The Arab SpringA series of mass protests across the Arab World against dictatorships that had stood for decades. In Tunisia, the protesters succeeded in creating a democratic government, but many other countries collapsed into civil war or experienced new dictatorships. was brutally repressed.³

But Fukuyama stands by his argument. In a new essay, he claims liberal democracy is still on the march, and that authoritarianism is weaker than it seems.

He claims authoritarian states are doomed to fail because their leaders become increasingly divorced from reality. They become less willing to listen to bad news. That is why Putin believed he could easily crush Ukraine: because no-one dared tell him how weak the Russian military really was.

Yes: People will always choose individual freedoms and representation over dictatorship and repression. That means there is constant pressure in favour of liberal democracy. Authoritarian states cannot hold out forever.

No: Democracy is not a successful system. It has not existed for very long, nor has it spread very far, and it has often proved fragile. Ultimately, authoritarianism will always outcompete it.

Or... The "democracy" part might survive without the "liberal". People will keep the vote, but many societies will become stricter. Some may even lose individual rights.