Can it 'win' this war? After the murder and capture of Israeli citizens by Hamas, experts think Israel will respond with a ground invasion which could rupture the fabric of the entire region.
Israel's warning as Gaza invasion looms
Can it 'win' this war? After the murder and capture of Israeli citizens by Hamas, experts think Israel will respond with a ground invasion which could rupture the fabric of the entire region.
It is a stalemate that creeps into the darkening hours of each night. On one side of the increasingly fragile border, Israeli soldiers wait with bated breath for the order from above. On the other, Palestinians hold their children close as the bombs rain down.
As the fighting intensifies in both Israel and PalestineAn area located in the Southern Levant region of Western Asia. , a ground invasion from Israel seems inevitable. All that remains for both sides is to wait. Israel has amassed 100,000 troops on the border with the Gaza StripThe smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, surrounded by Israel and Egypt. following the HamasA militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK. offensive in Israel on Sunday, whilst a whopping 360,000 reservistsA member of a military reserve force. In peacetime, they have non-military jobs. have been mobilised to join the fighting - 4% of the country's population.
Israel promises to enact a bloody punishment on Hamas, which has killed more than 1,200 in Israel and wounded a further 2,700 since breaching the border on Saturday.1
Israel has invaded the Gaza Strip twice since it withdrew in 2005. On the first occasion, a 15-day ground invasion in 2009, 1,400 Palestinians were killed. On the second, 19-day invasion in 2014, Israeli soldiers killed 2,251 Palestinians and sustained 71 losses of their own.
"The era of reasoning with these savages is over," declared Israel's envoyA representative, usually from a government. to the United NationsAn international organisation focused on keeping peace. Its refugee agency, the UNHCR, aims to assist refugees around the world.. Meanwhile, an Israeli general alleged that "the citizens of Gaza are celebrating instead of being horrified... human beasts are dealt with accordingly".2
Experts think that Israel's invasion is likely to be more prolonged than ever before - with far more fatalities.
Israel has a strong upper hand. Between its army, one of the most sophisticated in the world, and military aid from America, it is hard to imagine it struggling against the comparatively under-resourced Hamas forces.
But underestimating Hamas would be a mistake. Israel's military is not well-equipped for Gaza's densely populated urban spaces. Its tanks are vulnerable to attacks from the high buildings Hamas fighters will likely occupy, whilst its high-tech drones often work poorly in built-up areas. And Hamas has an expansive network of underground tunnels, only some of which are known to Israel.
If Israel's initial invasion is successful, they risk pulling in the Lebanese militant group HezbollahA militant organisation based in Lebanon, classified in the UK as a terrorist group. It has made direct attacks on Israel and is believed to have been responsible for assassinating Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri., which is a key ally of Hamas with far more resources. It risks escalating into a large-scale regional war which could implicate both countries' complex web of global alliances. Many believe that a second front is inevitable.
Anthony Cordesman, an expert on Middle East warfare, warned in TIME that a complete destruction of Hamas would risk creating an even worse successorA person who takes over from someone else, often in a job. .3 Resentments could boil over, establishing a chain of events which would only lead to more brutal violence. Any victory would only be temporary.
Even the notion of "winning" seems redundant to some. The conflict has killed at least 830 people in Gaza and left a further 180,000 homeless.4 Some think this can be a conflict with no winners.
Can Israel 'win' this war?
Yes: Israel is vastly superior in terms of military strength and will have more than ten soldiers for every Hamas fighter. It may take a while to adapt their technology to the task, but realistically Israel will win the war.
No: Hamas has been planning for this eventuality. Its underground tunnels and use of urban space will give it a distinct upper hand. In addition, clearly Israel's military has shown it has weaknesses.
Or... Nobody wins in this situation. Thousands will almost certainly die. And if Hamas loses, it risks sparking further conflict and a second front; it also risks another, even more aggressive successor rising up in Palestine.
Keywords
Palestine - An area located in the Southern Levant region of Western Asia.
Gaza strip - The smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, surrounded by Israel and Egypt.
Hamas - A militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK.
Reservists - A member of a military reserve force. In peacetime, they have non-military jobs.
Envoy - A representative, usually from a government.
United Nations - An international organisation focused on keeping peace. Its refugee agency, the UNHCR, aims to assist refugees around the world.
Hezbollah - A militant organisation based in Lebanon, classified in the UK as a terrorist group. It has made direct attacks on Israel and is believed to have been responsible for assassinating Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.
Successor - A person who takes over from someone else, often in a job.
Israel’s warning as Gaza invasion looms
Glossary
Palestine - An area located in the Southern Levant region of Western Asia.
Gaza strip - The smaller of two Palestinian territories, home to two million people. It is located on the Mediterranean coast, surrounded by Israel and Egypt.
Hamas - A militant Palestinian organisation, which has controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007. It is listed as a terrorist organisation in the UK.
Reservists - A member of a military reserve force. In peacetime, they have non-military jobs.
Envoy - A representative, usually from a government.
United Nations - An international organisation focused on keeping peace. Its refugee agency, the UNHCR, aims to assist refugees around the world.
Hezbollah - A militant organisation based in Lebanon, classified in the UK as a terrorist group. It has made direct attacks on Israel and is believed to have been responsible for assassinating Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.
Successor - A person who takes over from someone else, often in a job.