Is this Africa’s century? By 2050 the African continent is forecast to account for nearly 25 % of the entire global population, more than three times its share in 1914.
Huge population shifts to change our planet
Is this Africa's century? By 2050 the African continent is forecast to account for nearly 25 % of the entire global population, more than three times its share in 1914.
"Africa is a continent in flames," the musician and activist Bono once famously said. It is a message familiar from charity appeals featuring distressing images of starving children.
Yet a new book analysing the trends that will determine Africa's future offers a starkly different picture: Africa is in the midst of a historic boom that could propel it to the centre of the world stage.
In his book Youthquake, historian Edward Paice shows that the population of Africa is growing at an astonishing pace. Between 1914 and the present, the number of people living on the continent has increased more than tenfold, from 124 million to 1.4 billion.
Why is this happening? The short answer is simple: many people are being born and those people are living far longer than ever before. As more Africans survive to adulthood and have children themselves, their numbers have rocketed.
What is more, Africa's population is extremely young. In Nigeria, the continent's most populous country, the medianThe median is the middle point in a group of numbers: half of the numbers are smaller than the median and half are larger. age is 18, compared to roughly 40 across Europe and the USA. As these young people grow up and have children of their own, populations will continue to rise.
This upheaval is occurring at a time when growth is slowing everywhere else: Africa's population is increasing at more than double the rate of the rest of the world. By 2050, a quarter of the world's people are likely to live in Africa. A hundred years ago that number was 7%.
Statistics such as these are known as demographics, and they are one of the most important factors in deciding how economies and societies develop. "Demography is destiny," goes a common phrase attributed to the French philosopher Auguste ComteThe founder of a movement called positivism, which attempted to present a set of doctrines based on science as an alternative to religion. He is also known as one of the founders of the discipline of sociology..
Rising populations can create challenges since more people require more resources - including food. This fact has historically led to several mass waves of panic about population growth, often with racist and classist overtones.
The British economist Thomas MalthusA clergyman who was interested in maths and political thought and became famous for his extremely influential work An Essay on the Principle of Population. Predictions about population growth leading to food shortages are known as "Malthusian" after him. first raised an alarm in 1798 by claiming that high birth rates among the working classes would inevitably lead to mass food shortages. In 1968, the biologist Paul Ehrlich had a similar premonition of doom after witnessing the packed streets of DelhiThe capital of India. By some estimates, Delhi is the second-largest city in the world.. A "population bomb" would explode by 1980, he predicted: "hundreds of millions are going to starve to death."
Malthus and Ehrlich's grim prophecies proved wrong. In fact, living standards in places like India have improved, partly thanks to innovations such as the so-called "green revolutionFrom the 1950s and 1960s, new varieties of grain were introduced to the developing world alongside chemical pesticides and fertilisers. This has helped to feed growing populations, although there are also problems: the chemicals cause environmental damage and some farmers are unable to afford them, leading to crop failures." in farming.
If Africa is given the resources necessary to meet the needs of its rising population, some predict that it could be a blessing rather than a problem. Growing populations normally come with growing economies, and the economies of African countries are indeed growing fast.
This might also give them a more powerful voice in global politics, Paice argues: "It is very important we understand Africa better, treat it better and stop marginalising it," he concludes.
<h5 class="wp-block-heading eplus-wrapper">Is this Africa's century?</h5>
Yes: Africa has been hobbled for centuries by the legacy of slavery and exploitation. Now it is finally stepping out of the shadows. The dynamic youth of this neglected continent has the world in its hands.
No: More people, more problems. The rising populations of African countries will just make the continent's existing problems worse - this is a cause not for celebration but for concern.
Or... Demography isn't destiny. The future of Africa won't be decided by economists' formulas but by choices made within the continent and beyond: the fate of the African continent has consequences for us all.
Median - The median is the middle point in a group of numbers: half of the numbers are smaller than the median and half are larger.
Auguste Comte - The founder of a movement called positivism, which attempted to present a set of doctrines based on science as an alternative to religion. He is also known as one of the founders of the discipline of sociology.
Thomas Malthus - A clergyman who was interested in maths and political thought and became famous for his extremely influential work An Essay on the Principle of Population. Predictions about population growth leading to food shortages are known as "Malthusian" after him.
Delhi - The capital of India. By some estimates, Delhi is the second-largest city in the world.
Green revolution - From the 1950s and 1960s, new varieties of grain were introduced to the developing world alongside chemical pesticides and fertilisers. This has helped to feed growing populations, although there are also problems: the chemicals cause environmental damage and some farmers are unable to afford them, leading to crop failures.
Huge population shifts to change our planet

Glossary
Median - The median is the middle point in a group of numbers: half of the numbers are smaller than the median and half are larger.
Auguste Comte - The founder of a movement called positivism, which attempted to present a set of doctrines based on science as an alternative to religion. He is also known as one of the founders of the discipline of sociology.
Thomas Malthus - A clergyman who was interested in maths and political thought and became famous for his extremely influential work An Essay on the Principle of Population. Predictions about population growth leading to food shortages are known as “Malthusian” after him.
Delhi - The capital of India. By some estimates, Delhi is the second-largest city in the world.
Green revolution - From the 1950s and 1960s, new varieties of grain were introduced to the developing world alongside chemical pesticides and fertilisers. This has helped to feed growing populations, although there are also problems: the chemicals cause environmental damage and some farmers are unable to afford them, leading to crop failures.