Is this Africa’s century? By 2050 the African continent is forecast to account for nearly 25 % of the entire global population, more than three times its share in 1914.
Huge population shifts to change our planet
Is this Africa's century? By 2050 the African continent is forecast to account for nearly 25 % of the entire global population, more than three times its share in 1914.
"Africa is a continent in flames," Bono once said. It is a message familiar from charity appeals with starving children.
Yet a new book analysing the trends that will determine Africa's future offers a different picture: Africa is in the midst of a boom that could propel it to the centre of the world stage.
In his book Youthquake, historian Edward Paice shows that the population of Africa is growing quickly. Since 1914, the number of people living on the continent has gone from 124 million to 1.4 billion.
The reason is simple: many people are being born and those people are living longer than ever. As more Africans survive to adulthood and have children themselves, their numbers have rocketed.
Africa's population is extremely young. In Nigeria, the continent's most populous country, the medianThe median is the middle point in a group of numbers: half of the numbers are smaller than the median and half are larger. age is 18. As these young people grow up and have children, populations will rise.
This upheaval is occurring at a time when growth is slowing everywhere else: Africa's population is increasing at more than double the rate of the rest of the world. By 2050, a quarter of the world's people are likely to live in Africa.
Statistics such as these are are one of the most important factors in deciding how economies and societies develop. "Demography is destiny," goes a common phrase attributed to the French philosopher Auguste ComteThe founder of a movement called positivism, which attempted to present a set of doctrines based on science as an alternative to religion. He is also known as one of the founders of the discipline of sociology..
Rising populations can create challenges since more people require more resources. This fact has led to several waves of panic about population growth.
The British economist Thomas MalthusA clergyman who was interested in maths and political thought and became famous for his extremely influential work An Essay on the Principle of Population. Predictions about population growth leading to food shortages are known as "Malthusian" after him. first raised an alarm in 1798 by claiming that high birth rates among the working classes would inevitably lead to mass food shortages. In 1968, the biologist Paul Ehrlich had a similar premonition of doom after witnessing the packed streets of DelhiThe capital of India. By some estimates, Delhi is the second-largest city in the world..
Malthus and Ehrlich's grim prophecies proved wrong. In fact, living standards in places like India have improved, partly thanks to innovations such as the so-called "green revolutionFrom the 1950s and 1960s, new varieties of grain were introduced to the developing world alongside chemical pesticides and fertilisers. This has helped to feed growing populations, although there are also problems: the chemicals cause environmental damage and some farmers are unable to afford them, leading to crop failures." in farming.
If Africa is given the resources necessary to meet the needs of its rising population, some predict it could be a blessing.
This might give them a more powerful voice in global politics, Paice argues: "It is very important we understand Africa better, treat it better and stop marginalising it," he concludes.
Is this Africa's century?
Yes: Africa has been hobbled for centuries by the legacy of slavery and exploitation. Now it is finally stepping out of the shadows. The dynamic youth of this neglected continent has the world in its hands.
No: More people, more problems. The rising populations of African countries will just make the continent's existing problems worse - this is a cause not for celebration but for concern.
Or... Demography isn't destiny. The future of Africa won't be decided by economists' formulas but by choices made within the continent and beyond: the fate of the African continent has consequences for us all.
Keywords
Median - The median is the middle point in a group of numbers: half of the numbers are smaller than the median and half are larger.
Auguste Comte - The founder of a movement called positivism, which attempted to present a set of doctrines based on science as an alternative to religion. He is also known as one of the founders of the discipline of sociology.
Thomas Malthus - A clergyman who was interested in maths and political thought and became famous for his extremely influential work An Essay on the Principle of Population. Predictions about population growth leading to food shortages are known as "Malthusian" after him.
Delhi - The capital of India. By some estimates, Delhi is the second-largest city in the world.
Green revolution - From the 1950s and 1960s, new varieties of grain were introduced to the developing world alongside chemical pesticides and fertilisers. This has helped to feed growing populations, although there are also problems: the chemicals cause environmental damage and some farmers are unable to afford them, leading to crop failures.
Huge population shifts to change our planet
Glossary
Median - The median is the middle point in a group of numbers: half of the numbers are smaller than the median and half are larger.
Auguste Comte - The founder of a movement called positivism, which attempted to present a set of doctrines based on science as an alternative to religion. He is also known as one of the founders of the discipline of sociology.
Thomas Malthus - A clergyman who was interested in maths and political thought and became famous for his extremely influential work An Essay on the Principle of Population. Predictions about population growth leading to food shortages are known as “Malthusian” after him.
Delhi - The capital of India. By some estimates, Delhi is the second-largest city in the world.
Green revolution - From the 1950s and 1960s, new varieties of grain were introduced to the developing world alongside chemical pesticides and fertilisers. This has helped to feed growing populations, although there are also problems: the chemicals cause environmental damage and some farmers are unable to afford them, leading to crop failures.