Last month, the former president Barack Obama joined the campaign trail. Taking part in rallies in the city of Pittsburgh, located in the swing stateSome states in the US tend to always vote for the same party, whereas others, such as Pennsylvania, change sides often. Such states then become the focus of the campaign. of Pennsylvania, he made passionate speeches in support of Kamala Harris. And he criticised "the brothers" - Black men, like him - for failing to support the Democratic candidate.¹

For some, Obama was simply right to call out those men who were uncomfortable with the idea of a female president. But, for others, it was a mistake to single out a group that was already deserting the Democrats for Donald Trump. Political commentator Abby Phillip thought it was arrogant to "belittle" rather than encourage Black men to vote.²

Obama was not the only person to make this mistake. Many politicians, commentators and strategists have treated Trump supporters with contempt. In particular, well-educated elitesThe richest, most powerful, best-educated or best-trained members of society. have struggled to understand why anyone would vote Republican. But, after Trump's comprehensiveIncluding all aspects or elements of something. victory in the recent election, they will have to think again.

Political polls were also wrong. Most of the polls leading up to the election showed the results would be close, but that Harris would win in the end.³ A few even suggested a surprising Democratic victory, which attracted lots of attention, but proved completely false.⁴ More evidence that political elites are separated from the voters they want to win over.

The gap between the elites and everyone else is certainly growing. This is not just an economic gap, but also a cultural and ideological one. As the Democrat strategist Doug Sosnik explains, education level is now "biggest single, best predictor of how someone is going to vote".⁵

For example, the views of people with college degrees are often to the left of the average American voter - especially if they graduated from an elite college.⁶ At the same time, members of these elites mistakenly assume that their views are in line with the public.⁷ This means the political causes they care about are not always popular with the wider population.

But others argue that focusing on cultural issues is a distraction. The reason that the Democrats lost the election was less about the divide between elites and the masses, and more about failures of political strategy.

First, high levels of inflationAn increase in the price of goods in an economy.  and immigration made the party unpopular. Second, they chose a weak candidate in Joe Biden, and then replaced him with another weak candidate in Kamala Harris, who struggled to distance herself from the previous administration, or to win support from undecided voters.

These obstacles were clear to the public, but they were ignored by political commentators who wanted a Democratic victory. As a result, many were surprised by Trump's win.

For the elites to return to power, they will have to admit their mistakes. They may even have to reconsider the policies that pushed many voters towards Donald Trump. After all, those Republicans are the people the Democrats need to win back in 2028.

Do most powerful people live in a bubble?

Yes: The views of political elites are out of line with those of the public. That is why the commentators who wanted a Democrat victory failed to understand the strength of Trump support.

No: The Democrats lost the election because of their record in government and the state of the economy. Focusing on cultural issues is a distraction.

Or... The Democratic party needs humility to understand and win back the many working-class voters who supported Trump. Dismissing them as idiots or racists will not work.