In 1689, two world powers met in the town of Nerschink in south-east SiberiaA northern region of Russia, known for its harsh winters. It has a long history as a place of exile for criminals and political prisoners.. The relatively young state of Russia, based thousands of miles to the west in MoscowThe capital city of Russia. , was expanding eastwards. This brought it into conflict with China, the world's most ancient empire.

In the 17th Century, these cultures had little knowledge of each other. They did not even understand each other's language: they had to get a group of JesuitA Roman Catholic order of religious men. Jesuits are members of the Society of Jesus. missionaries to draw up a treaty for them in Latin.

Three centuries later, China and Russia have never been closer. China's Xi JinpingThe president of China, who has concentrated power and removed term limits allowing him to serve for life. calls it a "friendship without limits". And yesterday he visited Moscow to affirm this close relationship.

Xi makes no secret of his belief that the centre of global power is shifting towards Asia. This visit to Russia seems like a statement of this new future: the two great powers of the east meeting in friendship and deepening their ties.

But the show of unity masked a seismic shift in the relationship between the states the two men represent.

Before the war in Ukraine began, China was already by far the greater power. Now Russia is even more dependent on its powerful neighbour. China provides more than 40% of all Russian imports, and it has kept the Russian war machine running by providing raw materials and computer chips.¹

So while Xi claims to be dropping in on his best friend, it would be more accurate to say that he is visiting his most important client state.

And the two leaders also have quite different objectives. Russia is hoping to use the visit to deepen the two countries' economic ties and export more gas to China.

The Chinese, however, do not want to put all their eggs in the Russian basket. Xi has a wider aim: to prove that he is a global statesman, capable of rising above the fray to bring peace and stability.

That is why he intervened recently to broker a deal between IranA country in Western Asia, officially called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has a population of 84 million. and Saudi ArabiaThe second-largest country in the Arab world, with a population of nearly 35 million. . And now he is hoping to do the same in Russia. If he can persuade Putin to reopen negotiations with Ukraine, he will be able to present himself as a peacemaker. To that end, Xi is also due to make a phone call to Volodymyr Zelensky after his visit.

That is China's pitch to the world. The USA, it argues, has used its period of global leadership to divide the world into friend and foe and punish those it sees as its enemies.

When China occupies the top spot, Xi claims, it will keep its nose out of other people's business, and get involved only to keep the peace.

Whether or not others will believe him is a different question. China may claim to be neutral in the Ukraine war, but behind the scenes it has backed Russia to the hilt.

And this has sometimes meant thumbing its nose at global peacekeeping institutions. Xi's visit to Moscow comes just days after the International Criminal CourtAn international tribunal that has jurisdiction to prosecute individuals for committing genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. issued an arrest warrant for Putin.

Like the USA, they say, China will do anything to protect its economic interests and weaken its enemies. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Yes: The Ukraine war has put Russia firmly in China's pocket, and it is occupying the will and resources of China's western rivals as well. Xi can be confident that his country is now in the driving seat.

No: Russia and China are both dogged by accusations of massive human rights abuses. Many around the world fear the idea of Chinese leadership. This weakens Xi's position.

Or... China claims to want to run things differently. No more military adventures, meddling in the domestic affairs of other countries, or sanctionsEconomic measures designed to punish a country, for instance by excluding it from trade. on enemies. But in reality it might be more continuity than change.