Is Africa the next superpower? As China enters a period of “negative population growth” alongside declining GDP growth, many are questioning which nations will take its place in the global pecking order.
Historic shift as China's population shrinks
Is Africa the next superpower? As China enters a period of "negative population growth" alongside declining GDP growth, many are questioning which nations will take its place in the global pecking order.
According to legend, silk was discovered when the ancient Chinese empress Leizu was sitting in her garden drinking afternoon tea. A silkworm cocoon fell in her cup and unravelled, revealing a long thread of luxuriously soft silk.
But Leizu, wanting to protect the silkworms, kept the secret to herself. Only royals were allowed to wear the new silk clothing. When the rest of the world discovered this fine material, it became a highly sought-after luxury good and the Silk Road was named in its honour.
Nowadays, China's approach could not be more different. Rather than hiding its successes from the world, China has invested in projects on every continent and many thought it would soon overtake the US as the biggest economy in the world.
But now experts are doing a double take. Figures have revealed a drop in the country's population for the first time since 1961.1
A demographic imbalance such as this means that China's working-age population will decline in the coming decades, making it harder to support the larger proportion of senior citizens who require care and government support. It could stunt growth indefinitely.
It is bad news for China, but some economists think it could pave the way for a new superpower.
Many are convinced that African countries will take the reins. Africa has been described as the world's second fastest-growing region. Its population of 1.1 billion will double by 2050. Some are calling it the "fourth industrial revolutionA period of sudden, rapid industrialisation that transforms a country from an agricultural to an industrial economy.".
There are barriers. Economic growth in Africa is held back by a lack of investment and infrastructure.
Here, China could play a role too. China is not only Africa's biggest economic partner, its trade with the continent topping $200bn (£162bn) annually, but also its biggest investor: Chinese investment is responsible for 40% of Africa's infrastructure boom.2
Some are optimistic about China's experienced hand on Africa's shoulder, stating that the kind of infrastructure-based growth that the former enjoyed in the 1990s is exactly what Africa needs now.
Others warn that Africa could become "debt trapped", its economic winnings being syphoned off to China before Africans can enjoy the gains.
<h5 class=" eplus-wrapper" id="question"><strong>Is Africa the next superpower?</strong></h5>
Yes: Although development across the continent is uneven, Africa is clearly experiencing a huge boom. Its population and economy are growing, and China is helping to resolve its problems with investment and infrastructure.
No: China is not supporting Africa out of the goodness of its heart. As soon as Africa properly takes off it will start calling in its debts, and will take a large proportion of Africa's growth for itself.
Or... India will be the next superpower, not Africa. It is soon to have the world's largest population, and some experts think it could have the third biggest economy by 2030.
Industrial Revolution - A period of sudden, rapid industrialisation that transforms a country from an agricultural to an industrial economy.
Historic shift as China’s population shrinks
Glossary
Industrial Revolution - A period of sudden, rapid industrialisation that transforms a country from an agricultural to an industrial economy.