The Eiffel Tower is buried part-way in snow. The London Eye has frozen shut. The ColosseumA vast stadium built by the Roman emperors Vespasian and Titus. It could seat between 50,000 and 80,000 spectators. It was used to hold gladiatorial contests and even mock sea battles. has become a skating rink. And Moscow has become so cold that the population has started living underground. We are in another Ice AgeA long period of time in which global temperatures are extremely cold..

This could be a montage from a second rate science fiction disaster film.¹ But, according to a research paper published at University College London (UCL), a deep freeze in Europe is a real possibility.

The research suggests that global warming could cause the collapse of the Gulf Stream - and it could happen as soon as 2025.²

The Gulf Stream is a current of warm water that flows north from Florida along North America's East Coast, before crossing the Atlantic to Europe.

It heats up Europe, maintaining the continent's moderate temperatures and, according to UCL's Professor David Thornalley, is equivalent in energy output to millions of power stations.³

The Gulf Stream is one part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), a network of looping currents that pumps hot water around the world.

This system sees warm water flow from the Equator towards the poles. As it moves, some water evaporates and the remaining becomes saltier and denser.

By the time it reaches the coldest parts of the world, the water is so dense it gets pulled down towards the bottom of the oceans. This creates an enormous cycle that pulls warm water up to the surface. 

But now, Greenland's freshwater ice cap is melting into the ocean, making the water less salty. This has slowed down the Amoc system, which is currently at its weakest point in 1,600 years.⁴

If the Gulf Stream does shut down, temperatures in Europe could fall between 10 and 15C. 

This would transform the continent and its agriculture. Food might become scarcer. Winters might become difficult to survive.

Yet Europe would not be the only place to suffer. As former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan once said: "the whole of humanity stands to lose" because of climate change.

The sea level would rise up to 10cm on the east coast of North America, possibly placing the houses and livelihoods of many Mexicans, Americans and Canadians at risk. It would disrupt the rains that allow India, west African and South America to farm food, and would transform the seasons in the AmazonA large river and jungle in South America. Also the name of a US-based company that started off selling books online. It now sells almost any product and is expanding into futuristic computer technology..

It is clear, however, that some people will be affected more than others. Climate change will fall more heavily on those in poorer countries, who rely the most on agriculture and have fewer tools to defend themselves against the change.⁵ 

Will this affect all of us?

Yes: There is no doubt about it. Countries in Europe will be most directly affected, but the Gulf Stream is part of a network stretching across the entire globe. Everywhere will face consequences.

No: Most people will have to change their lives because of colder temperatures. But, as is often the case, some of the ultra-wealthy will find a way to escape the worse effects.

Or... Scientists have only kept records on Amoc since 1980. We should not accept predictions based on such a small sample. The circulation pattern might be stronger than we think.