Twelve jurors enter a courthouse in New York. Opposite them sits Donald Trump, the former president of the United States. He is on trial for 34 counts of falsifying business records. After seven weeks of hearings, and 11 hours of deliberation, the jury have reached their verdict.

The judge asks the foreman to read out the verdict. In a clear voice, he announces the word: guilty. According to one witness, at that moment, "the air in the courtroom turned to stone".¹ The jury's verdict was repeated another 33 times: guilty on every single count.

Outside the courthouse, Trump condemned the judge and the trial as politically motivated. "We didn't do a thing wrong. I'm a very innocent man." His team plan to appeal the judgement, but for now he is the first former president to become a convicted felon.

According to the prosecutionTo officially accuse someone in court of having taken part in a crime. , Donald Trump paid $130,000 (£102,000) to a former adult actress, Stormy Daniels, in the run-up to the 2016 election. The payment was made via his fixer, Michael Cohen, to keep her relationship with Trump a secret.

The lawyers argued that the former president falsely recorded this money as "legal expenses". In other words, the crime was not the payment, but the illegal accounting practices. And the jury agreed.

Many of Trump's critics hope this will be the scandal that sinks his career. Even those who voted for him in the past might think twice before backing a convicted felonIn the USA, somebody who has committed a felony - a crime that is usually punished with a prison sentence of more than one year or the death sentence. . "I do think it will have an impact and damage him as a candidate," claims Ariel Hill-Davis, co-founder of a Republican PartyAlso known as the Grand Old Party or GOP, it is one of the USA's two major political parties. Its first president was Abraham Lincoln. It sits on the right of the political spectrum. pressure groupA group that tries to influence political policy in favour of a specific cause - for example climate change or gun control. trying to move the party away from Trump.²

However, there is no law against someone with a criminal record running for president. Many Republicans believe the trial will actually strengthen his position. According to prominent supporter Hal Lambert, the court case was a witch huntAn attempt to find a particular group of people who are being blamed for something. Between 1500 and 1660, many innocent people were accused of being witches and killed in Europe. by Trump's enemies, which is bound to backfire. "His poll numbers will go higher after this."³

On 11 July, Trump will return to court to hear his sentence. The judge can award up to four years in prison for each offence, but most legal experts expect a fine. Given that he is a first-time offender, for a non-violent crime, incarceration is "unlikely" - according to respected law professor Cheryl Bader.⁴ And any punishment will be paused during the appeal process.

At the moment, polls suggest that Donald Trump is neck and neck with his Democratic rival, the current president Joe Biden. However, in several key swing statesIn the USA, states that sometimes vote for Republican presidential candidates and sometimes vote for Democrats. Which way the swing states go will decide who wins an election. , the Republican candidate is ahead. The conviction may reduce that narrow lead, but because this kind of scandal has never happened before, it is hard to predict the consequences.

Trump is also facing three more criminal trials - including two for trying to steal the 2020 election. But none of these is set to begin before late autumn,⁵ when Americans go to the polls to choose their next president. As Trump concluded outside the courthouse: "The real verdict is going to be [on] 5 November, by the people."

But could Trump still be the next US president?

Yes: New York is a Democratic state and the prosecutors were outspoken critics of Trump. Turning the courts into a political weapon will only increase support for the former president.

No: Republicans are traditionally the party of law and order. Many supporters will struggle to vote for a convicted felon as their next head of state.

Or... Trump is a historical one-off: the first former president to be convicted of a crime. It is impossible to look at the past to guess what might happen next.