The players take up their positions. The referee checks his watch. In the stands, thousands of fans roar their excitement. In front of TV sets across the world, millions more thrill with anticipation. All the nerve-racking qualifying games are behind them. This is it: the ref raises his whistle to his lips and blows. England's final push for the World Cup is under way!

The game against Iran kicks off at 1pm. Speculation about how England's manager, Gareth Southgate, will pick his team has been rife. Should he use a back three? Should Phil Foden play up front with Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka? Would Trent Alexander-Arnold be better as a right back or a right wing-back?

These are the kind of variables a manager has to grapple with before every match. But experts insist that there are mathematical rules which hold true whatever the circumstances. The ex-Arsenal and Holland player Denis Bergkamp gives an example:

"When I played in Holland, I always tried to lob the goalkeeper. People used to say, 'Oh, you're always only trying to make a nice goal.' But I said, 'Listen, if the goalie is a little bit off his line, how much space do you have on his left or right? It's not a lot. And how much space do you have above him? There is more. It's a question of mathematics.'"

Here are seven maths rules for soccer:

Big Chance - In his Soccermatics blog, David Sumpter argues that a team has a 0.388 likelihood of scoring if its players shoot from really good positions. If they just try their luck from further out or difficult angles, that goes down to 0.055. In regression analysisA way to find trends in data. Regression analysis is a powerful statistical method that allows you to examine the relationship between two or more variables of interest., this model has an Rsquared valueA statistical measure in a regression model that determines the proportion of variance in the dependent variable that can be explained by the independent variable. In other words, rsquared shows how well the data fit the regression model. of 0.159.

Approach coach - A shot from outside the box has a 2-3% chance of going in. For a header from a corner, the figure is 5%. For a shot from a player running in to the box during a counter-attack, it is 60%.

Possession obsession - You might expect that the team which has the most possession is the one more likely to win. But statistics show that this is not the case: the other side is equally likely to come out on top.  

Angle wrangle - The angle of a shot is hugely important. If it is 17 degrees, the chance of scoring is under 6%. If it is 55 degrees, the chance is over 30%.

Diving thriving - Researchers who studied World Cup penalty shoot-outs¹ found that penalty takers shoot as often to the left as they do to the right. But a goalkeeper whose team is behind is twice as likely to dive to the right.

Glowing throw-ins - In mechanics, the best angle for launching an object to make it travel as far as possible is generally 45 degrees. But researchers² have found that footballers can usually throw at higher speeds from lower angles, so the best angle for them is around 30 degrees.  

Rough stuff - The smoothness of a football affects the spin and speed of its flight. Aerodynamic drag will rob a smooth ball of much more kinetic energy than a rough one.

Yes: Football matches are decided by scoring goals, and every goal depends on maths: where the player is in relation to the goal, how hard he or she kicks the ball, and how aerodynamics affect its flight.  

No: Footballers rely on skill, which is a matter of instinct rather than intelligence. Nobody taking a free kick would stop to work out the angles, even if he or she were given the time to do so.  

Or... Not in the way that some sports are. In snooker, for example, the players have to think incredibly carefully about which angle to strike the ball at, and where it will send the balls it hits.