Is football mainly about maths? Today England play their first match in the 2022 World Cup finals – and experts say they need to be not just skilful, but good at equations.
Goal! Why it all depends on Rsquared=0.159
Is football mainly about maths? Today England play their first match in the 2022 World Cup finals - and experts say they need to be not just skilful, but good at equations.
The players take up their positions. In the stands, thousands of fans roar their excitement. The ref raises his whistle to his lips and blows. England's first game in the World Cup finals is under way!
Every manager has difficult decisions before a game. But experts say there are mathematical rules which must be followed. Here are seven:
Big Chance In his Soccermatics blog, David Sumpter argues that a team has a 0.388 chance of scoring if its players shoot from really good positions. If they just try their luck from further out or difficult angles, that goes down to 0.055.
Approach coach A shot from outside the box has a 2-3% chance of going in. For a header from a corner, the figure is 5%. For a shot from a player running in to the box during a counter-attack, it is 60%.
Possession obsession You might think that the team which has the ball the most is the one likely to win. But statistics show this is not the case. The other side is equally likely to come out on top.
Angle wrangle The angle of a shot is hugely important. If it is 17 degrees, the chance of scoring is under 6%. If it is 55 degrees, the chance is over 30%.
Diving thriving A team which studied World Cup penalty shoot-outs1 found that penalty takers shoot as often to the left as they do to the right. But a goalkeeper whose team is behind is twice as likely to dive to the right.
Glowing throw-ins The best angle for launching an object to make it travel as far as possible is generally 45 degrees. But researchers2 have found that footballers can usually throw at higher speeds from lower angles, so the best angle for them is around 30 degrees.
Rough stuff The smoothness of a football affects the spin and speed of its flight. A smooth ball will slow down more than a rough one.
Is football mainly about maths?
Yes: Football matches are decided by scoring goals, and every goal depends on maths: where the player is in relation to the goal, how hard he or she kicks the ball, and how aerodynamics affect its flight.
No: Footballers rely on skill, which is a matter of instinct rather than intelligence. Nobody taking a free kick would stop to work out the angles, even if he or she were given the time to do so.
Or... Not in the way that some sports are. In snooker, for example, the players have to think incredibly carefully about which angle to strike the ball at, and where it will send the balls it hits.