Militia attrition

"We had to all hide, all ten of us, in the back room," said eight-year-old Leen, describing the moment armed men burst into her home in KhartoumBuilt at the meeting point of two rivers, the Blue Nile and the White Nile, it has a population of five million.. "I stayed calm. I didn't cry, because we couldn't make any noise." The men belonged to one of SudanA country in northeast Africa with a population of 45 million. 's two warring factions, the RSF (Rapid Support Forces). "They were bad, bad guys," said Leen's younger brother.

The family finally made it to the safety of Saudi Arabia. They knew how lucky they had been. "Please, please help our family left in Sudan," Leen's mother Rasha pleaded.

Thousands of people have fled Khartoum since fighting broke out two weeks ago. But for many it has been a hugely perilous journey.

"Streets closed off by gunfire," reported the Sunday Times. "Militiamen demanding bribes. Bodies in bombed-out buildings. Airstrikes, pounding artillery, and a terrible feeling that time was running out."

"There's no safety," said Eltigani Abdelaal, a doctor from Manchester.¹ "My brother, who drove me to the airport, suffered a lot of aggression on the way back and nearly had his car stolen." He added that a friend had been stabbed to death outside his home, and that a shortage of petrol was making the situation even worse.

Many people have fled to Port Sudan, 400 miles away, hoping to escape by sea. Saudi Arabia has evacuated over 5,000 people of 100 nationalities on warships and private boats.

But others including over 2,000 Yemeni students, have been stuck in the port for weeks. And while Saudi Arabia has been praised for its relief work, it is also part of the problem.

The cause of the conflict is a power struggle between two men. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is the head of Sudan's army, while General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo commands the RSF militia. 

In 2019 the two overthrew the corrupt President Omar al-Bashir. A government with military and civilian members was set up to prepare for democratic elections. Burhan led it, with Dagalo as his number two.

Two years later they mounted a military coupWhen an individual or group takes control of government by illegal means, including by violence., arresting leading civilian politicians. But Dagalo resented Burhan's superior position. This, and attempts to make the RSF answerable to the regular army and parliament, sparked the present fighting. 

The RSF has an appalling reputation. It began over 20 years ago as the JanjaweedThe term means "devils on horseback". militia, which carried out ethnic cleansingThe systematic forced removal from one area or killing of an ethnic group, with the aim of creating a region that is ethnically homogeneous. in the province of DarfurA region of western Sudan with a population of 9 million. .

But some countries are more interested in exploiting Sudan's mineral wealth and strategic position than in helping its people live in peace.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates see Dagalo as a valuable ally against militant Islamists. But they also have ties to Burhan, who - like Dagalo - fought for their alliance in Yemen.

Russia is keen to exploit Sudan's gold mines, and also to establish a naval base on the Red Sea. Egypt wants Sudan as an ally to stop its neighbour Ethiopia building a dam on the River Nile which would disrupt their water supplies.

China also has extensive interests in Sudan, which owes it over $6bn (£4.8bn) in loans. 

Yes: There are so many countries with conflicting interests involved that the fighting is bound to escalate. Russia's desire for a naval base in Sudan will surely lead to confrontation with the US.

No: The conflict has all the making of a proxy war. Different countries might support the two factions with arms and military expertise, but they will be careful not to involve their own troops.  

Or... It will not start a world war, but it will result in a massive refugee crisis. Sudan has a population of over 45 million and several of its neighbours are already coping with conflicts of their own.