It is a tale of two mugshots. When Fulton County Jail in GeorgiaA state in the southern USA. Also a country at the intersection of Europe and Asia. first released the picture of a scowling Trump, liberalLiberalism is a school of political thought that stresses individual liberty. Liberals believe that society should not try to impose values or behaviours on individuals but should be tolerant of different lifestyles. A leading exponent of liberal thought was the 19th-century English philosopher John Stuart Mill, the author of the classic work On Liberty. Americans found it hilarious. A review in the Guardian said he looked like a "foolish old duffer".

But for conservatives it was a work of art. Within 90 minutes Trump's campaign had printed it on the side of a mug. In the following days he raised $7.1m (£5.6m) in donations.

Trump has every reason to feel bullish. In the primary electionsThe elections through which Americans choose the candidates that will run for the major parties in the presidential election. for the 2024 presidential race, his lead seems insurmountable. The latest polls put him at 59%, giving him a 46-point lead over his nearest rival, Florida governorIn the USA, governors are elected leaders of the 50 states. Ron DeSantis. 

A flurry of criminal charges against Trump, which some liberals hoped might act as a drag on his campaign or even allow him to be barred from standing, have backfired.

Even many Republican PartyAlso known as the Grand Old Party or GOP, it is one of the USA's two major political parties. Its first president was Abraham Lincoln. It sits on the right of the political spectrum. members who are more sceptical about Trump believe he is persecuted by the liberal establishment. They believe Trump when he says they will also face legal persecution in future. No wonder almost half of Republicans say the charges make them more likely to vote for him.¹

And if Trump does win the Republican nomination, his chances in the rematch against Joe Biden are solid. Polls put the two in a dead heat, but Biden's numbers could easily slip. 

Only 39% of voters hold a favourable view of the current president, and almost three-quarters say he is too old for a second term. Meanwhile, surveys have found voters believe Trump has a better record of accomplishments in office and a clearer vision for the future, and that he is mentally more fit for the presidency.

It would not take much for Trump to take a polling lead that would put him back in the White HouseThe official residence of the US president, in Washington DC. Burnt by British troops in 1814, it was rebuilt and painted white to hide the smoke stains..

But others say even the primary is far from a done deal. They think Trump's lead is softer than it looks.

Even supportive Republicans are worried about Trump's electability. At the midterm elections last year, Republican candidates who were endorsed by Trump or who repeated his lie about the 2020 election being rigged lost resoundingly.

Analysis of Republican voters suggests that only around 37% are diehard Trump voters. A quarter would never vote for him, and the rest say they are open to persuasion. In fact, most of this middle group does not have a "very favourable" view of Trump.²

The problem for the other candidates is not that Trump is too popular, but that the non-Trump vote is too divided. Most of the persuadable voters believe all the same things as Trump: they oppose more aid to Ukraine, are anti-"wokeness", and oppose immigration reform. But the anti-Trump voters disagree on all these things.

If a candidate can find a way of appealing to voters who share Trump's views but are worried about his electability, without alienating the more liberal Republicans who hate his views, they will be in with a shot.

As the primary continues and more moderate candidates drop out, some of the liberal Republicans might well grit their teeth and vote for anyone but Trump.

Yes: Trump might be in the lead right now, but voters have their doubts. Even Republicans would prefer a different candidate. Everything suggests he is likely to lose the presidential election.

No: What should worry Biden is that Trump is increasingly seen as a dynamic and accomplished president. Although the polls do not put him in the lead, the underlying figures suggest he will win again.

Or... The real fear is not that Trump will win the election. It is that he will lose, and his base will be so anguished that they will make a new attempt to overthrow democracy and install him anyway.