Have mathematicians come up with an answer? Life constantly forces us to make very big and often very painful decisions. Now there is a formula to help guide us. Could it work?
Eureka! The 37% rule for making decisions
Have mathematicians come up with an answer? Life constantly forces us to make very big and often very painful decisions. Now there is a formula to help guide us. Could it work?
"Iceberg!" Shortly before midnight, the "unsinkable" Titanic collided with ice. She sank three hours later, killing more than 1,500 people. No emergency procedures, a lack of lifeboats and a last-minute error by the helmsmanThe person in charge of steering the ship. First Officer William Murdoch could have averted disaster by changing direction and not ordering the Titanic to go into reverse..
Not all bad choices have such awful outcomes. But we all wrestle with decisions. So what if there was a number to steer us? Mathematicians say it is 37%.
Imagine you are buying a house, says researcher Brian Christian. You have given yourself a month, so spend the first eleven days (37%) just looking. After that, plump for the next house that is the best so far. "Optimal stoppingIn computing, this algorithm is necessary so that large amounts of data can be processed quickly. For example, Internet searches.", says Christian, "tells us when to look and when to leap."
It sounds like numerologyThe followers of the ancient Greek philosopher and mathematician Pythagoras believed everything could be understood by numbers and their mystical properties.. But 37% comes from computer science and the idea that algorithms can help us.
So, could maths help us find a partner and life-long happiness?
In Algorithms to Live By, Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths argue every fraught decision-maker is "reinventing the wheel". They try to balance "impulsivity and overthinking", but all the anguish is unnecessary.
A model is not troubled by self-doubt or cognitive biasesIrrational thoughts based on incorrect assumptions about the world. For example, exaggerating your chance of success (overconfidence).. Algorithms are just a "sequence of steps used to solve a problem". A cookery recipe, a knitting pattern, stone knappingThe precise sequence of blows required to make a stone tool. "Algorithms have been a part of human technology ever since the Stone Age," says Brian Christian. are all algorithms.
Mathematician Hannah Fry says we need to pay attention to how they are "subtly shifting the way our society is operating." Humans and machines should be "partners", we must not follow numbers blindly.
Computer scientist Max Hawkins was uncomfortable about how his phone apps were killing his spontaneity. He decided to live randomly, making algorithms that randomised where he lived and what he did.
How many decisions do we actually make? A frequently shared statistic is 35,000 every day. That is a decision about every 1.5 seconds! This incredible number is an Internet myth and not backed by scientific evidence.
After the sinking of the Titanic, new regulations meant ships had more lifeboats and safety procedures. An inquiry into the disaster listed the "mistakes" but warned any future shipwreck would result from "negligence".
Whether we think maths has the answers or not, rules and algorithms make decisions for us all the time. So what do we lose and gain from letting numbers decide our fate?
Have mathematicians come up with an answer?
Yes: Modern life is a maze of choices with too many options and not enough time. Maths comes to our rescue by simplifying the decision-making process and giving us optimal solutions free of human bias.
No: Life is not a mathematical equation. It involves emotions, relationships, creative inspiration and gut instincts. We may not always make the best decisions, but we don't want to be ruled by numbers.
Or... Ordering a meal, buying a house and choosing a partner are entirely different kinds of decisions. Maths may help us with some choices but not others, so we should keep an open mind.
Keywords
Helmsman - The person in charge of steering the ship. First Officer William Murdoch could have averted disaster by changing direction and not ordering the Titanic to go into reverse.
Optimal stopping - In computing, this algorithm is necessary so that large amounts of data can be processed quickly. For example, Internet searches.
Numerology - The followers of the ancient Greek philosopher and mathematician Pythagoras believed everything could be understood by numbers and their mystical properties.
Cognitive biases - Irrational thoughts based on incorrect assumptions about the world. For example, exaggerating your chance of success (overconfidence).
Stone knapping - The precise sequence of blows required to make a stone tool. "Algorithms have been a part of human technology ever since the Stone Age," says Brian Christian.
Eureka! The 37% rule for making decisions
Glossary
Helmsman - The person in charge of steering the ship. First Officer William Murdoch could have averted disaster by changing direction and not ordering the Titanic to go into reverse.
Optimal stopping - In computing, this algorithm is necessary so that large amounts of data can be processed quickly. For example, Internet searches.
Numerology - The followers of the ancient Greek philosopher and mathematician Pythagoras believed everything could be understood by numbers and their mystical properties.
Cognitive biases - Irrational thoughts based on incorrect assumptions about the world. For example, exaggerating your chance of success (overconfidence).
Stone knapping - The precise sequence of blows required to make a stone tool. "Algorithms have been a part of human technology ever since the Stone Age," says Brian Christian.