Political football

As dawn broke over England this morning, millions of football fans stirred uneasily in their beds. The first thought? "Today's the day!" At 5pm Gareth Southgate's team will line up against Germany for 90 minutes of gut-churning drama, possibly followed by extra time - and, worse still, a .

Wembley was the scene of England's greatest ever triumph, in the 1966 World Cup final. With memories of World War Two still strong, the fact that their opponents were West Germany made the victory doubly sweet.

But if anyone imagined that England had established lasting supremacy, they were wrong. Going into today's match, the statistics show Germany with 15 victories to England's 13.

In Gareth Southgate's words: "They find a way to win when others would have lost hope." England's biggest victory was a 5-1 trouncing in a 2001 World Cup qualifier - but the Germans bounced back to reach the final the following year.

In two major tournaments, the 1990 World Cup and the 1996 European Championships, the teams' meetings ended in penalty shoot-outs - both won by Germany. One of the penalty takers who missed in 1996 was Southgate himself.

Today, according to Rod Liddle in The Sunday Times, "Most England fans will be approaching the game with a sense of dread, or resignation, knowing that misery will follow - like a visit to the dentist."

But in the Daily Mail, Dominic Lawson took a more optimistic view. There were, he argued, "strange parallels" between the decline of German political influence in Europe and "the recent regression of its once all-conquering national football team".

Lawson points out that the German manager, Joachim Low, took control of the team only a few months after Angela Merkel became Chancellor in 2005 - and both are due to leave their jobs by the autumn.

Low's team has been in decline since winning the 2014 World Cup. At the Euros, it has lost to France and struggled to draw with Hungary - though it did beat Portugal 4-2.

Politically, Merkel has suffered three major rebuffs in recent months. First, there was her attempt to get the EU to agree on a big investment deal with China, despite the latter's repression of Uighur Muslims and of pro-democracy campaigners in Hong Kong. Last month the European Parliament voted overwhelmingly to reject it.

Then she produced a plan for an EU summit with President Putin, restoring relations that were severed after Russia's seizure of Crimea. But at a meeting of EU heads of government last week, the idea was vehemently rejected by Eastern European states which have historically been victims of Russia and Germany.

Finally, Merkel's suggestion that all visitors to the EU from the UK should face quarantine was strongly opposed by southern European countries.

"These are three striking defeats for Angela Merkel," was the verdict of a former British ambassador to Germany. "She seems to have lost her tactical touch."

Are the omens good for England?

Some say, yes. For a long time, Germany has seemed like an almost unstoppable force, both politically and on the pitch. But events this year have shown it unable to dictate policy in Europe, with smaller nations prepared to stand up to it - and its football team came within a hair's breadth of elimination from Euro 2020 before snatching a draw against Hungary.

Others point out that while Germany may be in decline, so is England. Britain has a prime minister many say is untrustworthy. Brexit has brought a loss of influence, a drop in exports and a shortage of labour. Germany's youngest player, 18-year-old Jamala Musiala, was also eligible to play for England but decided that their rivals were a better bet.