Growing pains

"New jobs and clean growth". That was the rallying cry of British prime minister Rishi Sunak as he arrived at the COP27The 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as the Conference of the Parties (COP). climate summit in Egypt.

The need for growth is one of the few issues that unite Sunak, his ill-fated predecessor Liz TrussThe Conservative prime minister of the United Kingdom from September to October 2022. and the opposition Labour Party.

But a rebellion is brewing. At COP27 Sunak will come face to face with supporters of degrowth: the plan for economic shrinking whose popularity is perhaps the only thing growing.

The degrowth movement began in 1972, when an organisation called the Club of Rome wrote a report called The Limits to Growth. It argued that growth was causing environmental devastation.

Degrowth has become more prominent in recent years. It even has the ear of the highly influential global think tankA research organisation focusing on a certain topic, such as climate policy or education. They often produce information used by businesses, governments and big organisations. the World Economic ForumAn independent organisation based in Switzerland which is committed to improving the world., which brings together global political leaders, big business and thinkers.

The degrowthers' argument is simple. There can be no growth without constantly increasing production and consumption. And production requires energy, while consumption produces waste - two of the things that are doing most to kill the planet.

That is why they think it is simply impossible to keep the economy growing forever. Sooner or later, it runs into natural constraints.

Until now, the global community has focused on "sustainable development": the idea that countries should keep seeking growth, but do so in ways that do not harm the planet.

The degrowth movement claims this is impossible. Growth is self-destructive. Instead, the richest countries should be encouraged to shrink their own economies and clamp down on consumption.

Opponents think this would be madness. They point out that economic shrinking has tended to lead to worse environmental outcomes, as green agendas get shelved in favour of managing the problems caused by recessionsPeriods of economic decline. A recession occurs when a country's Gross Domestic Product falls for six months in a row. .

And they argue economic growth has always led to higher living standards. Degrowth would mean making people's lives worse.¹

But degrowthers believe this approach lacks imagination. Simply having more things, they argue, does not necessarily mean a higher standard of living. And we can achieve degrowth in ways that improve quality of life: encouraging people to work fewer hours, for example.

Yes: Degrowth is the only way of saving the climate, and the best way of improving living standards. It means working less, keeping things for longer and having more time to enjoy life.

No: Degrowth is a recipe for human suffering. It means unemployment, poverty and misery, and it would strand the world's poorest in eternal underdevelopment.

Or... We might have no choice. Economic growth has already slowed almost to a stop around the world. The environment simply is not letting us grow any more. We need to adapt to this reality.