Are heatwaves here to stay? Climate change is not going away, warn worried scientists. Humans everywhere will have to adapt. So what might life look like eight years from now?
Drought, fire and rationing: a day in 2030
Are heatwaves here to stay? Climate change is not going away, warn worried scientists. Humans everywhere will have to adapt. So what might life look like eight years from now?
Alex's diary. 15 August 2030.
I hate Thursdays. My alarm beeps one hour early at 5am, so I can catch the weekly water truck. I slip my gas mask on and grab two jerry cans. Outside, it is already 30C.
When I return, Mum looks at the half can of water and says, "Is that all?" I tell her they have cut the rations again. Dad's late for work, still trying to fix the broken heat pump. On TV, the presenter says: "Day 54 of the worst heatwave on record."
My friend Grace texts, "We're here." She and Evie are on the street in their UV coatsHarmful ultraviolet light can penetrate traditional fabrics like cotton. So in extreme heat, scientists recommend special fabrics with a high ultraviolet protection factor (UPF). and masks. The heat alert on my watch flashes 24. Twenty-four minutes until it's too hot to be outside. "Got to go, Mum. I'm late."
We hurry along the green corridorCar-free avenues through urban areas with vegetation and wildlife. As well as supporting ecosystems, they improve the air quality and reduce the surrounding temperature. to school. Grace and Evie are my best friends in Year Nine. Grace's family lived far south before the wet-bulbA temperature read by a thermometer covered with a water-soaked cloth. It is a measure of high temperature and high humidity. Wet-bulb temperatures above 35C are fatal because the body is unable to cool itself by sweating. summers forced them to move. Evie comes from a place on the coast that does not exist anymore.
Our school's on the edge of town, away from the city heat islandUrban areas are usually warmer than rural surroundings because of heat retained by artificial materials and waste heat from energy use.. It is state-of-the-art. All wood and stone and no concrete, painted white to reflect sunlight. Today all the shutters are closed and blinds down. It takes a few minutes for our eyes to adjust to the dim light.
Because of the rising heat, the teachers cram all our lessons into the morning. By break time, my brain wants to explode from the heat and algebra. Grace gets out an icepack and we pass it around. It is a miracle to hold something that cold.
In geography, we pin up a revised world map with the new coastlines. Grace says it looks shrivelled, like rotten fruit. Evie says nothing at all. The teacher asks us where in the world we would like to go when the government lifts the ban on air travel. I say Antarctica.
After lunch, we sneak up to the top floor and peek through the blinds. You are not supposed to, but it is worth it for the view. We can see for miles. Out west, the wildfire blazes on the horizon. It has been burning for 37 days now. Evie thinks the fire is getting closer, but I say: no - the news says it is under control.
In the afternoon, we doze in the inner courtyardsArchitects designing heatwave-proof buildings are inspired by African and Middle Eastern traditional buildings. These structures use thick walls and open spaces in permanent shade., the coolest part of the school. Until the bell rings and we know it is safe to head home.
I do my homework at the kitchen table. Mum slices up lab meat "No-kill" meat grown from animal cells in a laboratory. The first lab-grown meat went on sale in Singapore last year. Its producers say it will emit less carbon and use less land and water than traditional farming. and makes a salad from the community garden. The Council has declared a stay-at-home order for tomorrow, she says. Too dangerous to leave the house. No work. No school.
Dad says it is like an old-fashioned snow day. I've never seen snow. I try to imagine Mum and Dad as children - pressed against the window pane, watching the world turn white.
Once you get Dad on to the good old days, you just cannot shut him up. Running water all year round, swimming pools, footie in the summer rain, walks in the woods - trees older than Grandma. "All gone now," he says.
I hate to see Dad sad. So when the warning lights turn green and the temperature dips outside, I get the football and we all go up onto the roof. The stars are out. And there is a cool breeze at last.
Are heatwaves here to stay?
Yes: The science is clear: global warming makes heatwaves more likely. They will become more common even in the best-case scenario of a 1.4C rise by 2100, with a severe heatwave in the UK every 15 years.
No: This is a lot of hot air. Northern latitudes experienced heatwaves long before climate change. And some climate models predict wetter - and even cooler - weather for the UK and northern Europe.
Or... The future is unwritten. Humans caused climate change but we can still avoid its worst effects. If we act now, future generations will not have to accept heatwaves as a fact of life.
Keywords
UV coats - Harmful ultraviolet light can penetrate traditional fabrics like cotton. So in extreme heat, scientists recommend special fabrics with a high ultraviolet protection factor (UPF).
Green corridor - Car-free avenues through urban areas with vegetation and wildlife. As well as supporting ecosystems, they improve the air quality and reduce the surrounding temperature.
Wet-bulb - A temperature read by a thermometer covered with a water-soaked cloth. It is a measure of high temperature and high humidity. Wet-bulb temperatures above 35C are fatal because the body is unable to cool itself by sweating.
City heat island - Urban areas are usually warmer than rural surroundings because of heat retained by artificial materials and waste heat from energy use.
Inner courtyards - Architects designing heatwave-proof buildings are inspired by African and Middle Eastern traditional buildings. These structures use thick walls and open spaces in permanent shade.
Lab meat - "No-kill" meat grown from animal cells in a laboratory. The first lab-grown meat went on sale in Singapore last year. Its producers say it will emit less carbon and use less land and water than traditional farming.
Drought, fire and rationing: a day in 2030
Glossary
UV coats - Harmful ultraviolet light can penetrate traditional fabrics like cotton. So in extreme heat, scientists recommend special fabrics with a high ultraviolet protection factor (UPF).
Green corridor - Car-free avenues through urban areas with vegetation and wildlife. As well as supporting ecosystems, they improve the air quality and reduce the surrounding temperature.
Wet-bulb - A temperature read by a thermometer covered with a water-soaked cloth. It is a measure of high temperature and high humidity. Wet-bulb temperatures above 35C are fatal because the body is unable to cool itself by sweating.
City heat island - Urban areas are usually warmer than rural surroundings because of heat retained by artificial materials and waste heat from energy use.
Inner courtyards - Architects designing heatwave-proof buildings are inspired by African and Middle Eastern traditional buildings. These structures use thick walls and open spaces in permanent shade.
Lab meat - "No-kill" meat grown from animal cells in a laboratory. The first lab-grown meat went on sale in Singapore last year. Its producers say it will emit less carbon and use less land and water than traditional farming.