Chain reaction

It was the nightmare after Christmas. On 29 December, British border guards seized a shipment of scrap metal at London's Heathrow Airport. A scanner had revealed that it contained the radioactiveSomething that has or produces radiation. element uraniumA very heavy, silvery-grey metal that is naturally radioactive..

Uranium is a key component in nuclear weapons. Counter-terrorism forces feared the uranium might be material for a dirty bomb: a nuclear-charged explosive device designed to spread radiationEnergy given off when radioactive material decays. It can be extremely harmful and sometimes fatal, causing vomiting, skin damage, hair loss and cancer..

Authorities believe the package was sent from PakistanA country in South Asia with a population of 242 million, making it the fifth-most populated country. via OmanA monarchy on the Arabian peninsula. to an Iranian company based in the UK. One source told The Sun: "There are real concerns over what the Iranians living here wanted with non-disclosed nuclear material." IranA country in Western Asia, officially called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has a population of 84 million. is estimated to hold more than 60 kg of enrichedNuclear power is created by forcing the nucleus of uranium or plutonium atoms to split. The metal must first be highly enriched, a complex process in which the most radioactive part of uranium is concentrated and the less radioactive parts are reduced. uranium.

It now appears to be a false alarm. The uranium was low in quality and quantity. Counter terrorism police chief Richard Smith says: "it does not appear to be linked to any direct threat." Some experts suggest it may have been shipped by accident.

Yet the possibility of foul play remains. British anti-terror forces are tracking the senders and intended recipients of the package.

The incident happened during a period of heightened nuclear fear.¹ Chemical Weapons expert Hamish De Bretton-Gordon says: "The nuclear threat has never been higher."

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has raised the ghosts of the Cold WarA period of diplomatic conflict between blocs led by the USA and the USSR that lasted from 1947 until 1991, when the USSR collapsed. and ChernobylThe disaster, in 1986, involved a meltdown at a nuclear plant in Ukraine.. Russian soldiers have shelled towns near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which if damaged could lead to radioactive gas leak, or worse. In October, Russian president Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of preparing a dirty bomb. Observers wondered if he was laying the ground for an attack of his own.

Elsewhere, North KoreaA country formed in 1945 when Japanese-occupied Korea was split between a Communist government in the north and a capitalist one in the south. Today it is extremely reclusive, and hostile to the West. has escalated its nuclear missile testing. Last year it tested almost 70 missiles, far above its previous record of 25 in 2017. And in 2018, US president Donald Trump withdrew from a nuclear prevention deal with Iran. In response, the Middle Eastern country resumed developing weapons.

The consequences would be dire if a terrorist group got hold of one. Wars have been fought over much less. In 1738, Britain declared war on Spain over a severed ear.² 1859, Britain and the USA almost fought over a dead pig.³ World War One itself was caused by an assassination that had nothing to do with most of the countries that fought.⁴ A dirty bomb would dwarf these in significance.

Others believe that nuclear terrorism is extremely unlikely to happen. Nuclear weapons are meant to stop violence, rather than cause it.  As American political strategist Rick Wilson writes: "The purpose of nuclear weapons is... to make all parties in possession of nuclear weapons never, ever use them. Anyone who uses a nuclear weapon seals their own destruction."

Nuclear weapons are incredibly difficult to acquire. Only nine countries possess nuclear weapons.⁵  The weapons that already exist are kept under the strictest lock and key. And their creation requires technology beyond the reach of any terrorist.

Yes: Nations can keep their nuclear arsenals close to their chests. But all it takes is a single leak, intentional or accidental, for a nuclear weapon to go off. And once it does, the world will burn.

No: Nuclear weapons are about the only thing stopping a huge war. As former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher said: "A world without nuclear weapons would be less stable and more dangerous for all of us."

Or... It depends who causes the attack and where it happens. It could provoke retaliation. Or it could bring nuclear powers together to prevent further incidents. Hopefully we will never find out.