Chain reaction

It was the nightmare after Christmas. On 29 December, British border guards seized a shipment of scrap metal at London's Heathrow Airport. A scanner had revealed that it contained the radioactive element uraniumA very heavy, silvery-grey metal that is naturally radioactive..

Uranium is a key component in nuclear weapons. Counter-terrorism forces feared the uranium might be material for a dirty bomb: a nuclear-charged explosive device designed to spread radiationEnergy given off when radioactive material decays. It can be extremely harmful and sometimes fatal, causing vomiting, skin damage, hair loss and cancer..

It now appears to be a false alarm. The uranium was low in quality and quantity. Some experts suggest it may have been shipped by accident.

Yet the possibility of foul play remains. British anti-terror forces are tracking the senders and intended recipients of the package.

The incident happened during a period of nuclear alarm.¹ Chemical Weapons expert Hamish De Bretton-Gordon says: "The nuclear threat has never been higher."

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has raised the ghosts of the Cold WarA period of diplomatic conflict between blocs led by the USA and the USSR that lasted from 1947 until 1991, when the USSR collapsed. and ChernobylThe disaster, in 1986, involved a meltdown at a nuclear plant in Ukraine.. Russian soldiers have shelled towns near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which if damaged could lead to radioactiveSomething that has or produces radiation. gas leak, or worse. 

In October, Russian president Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of preparing a dirty bomb. Observers wondered if he was laying the ground for an attack of his own.

A nuclear terrorist attack could easily trigger conflict. Wars have been fought over much less. In 1738, Britain declared war on Spain over a severed ear.² 1859, Britain and the U.S. almost fought over a dead pig.³ World War One itself was caused by an assassination that had nothing to do with most of the countries that fought.⁴

Others believe that nuclear terrorism is very unlikely. Nuclear weapons are meant to stop violence, rather than cause it. As American political strategist Rick Wilson writes: "The purpose of nuclear weapons is... to make all parties in possession of nuclear weapons never, ever use them."

Nuclear weapons are incredibly difficult to acquire. Only nine countries possess nuclear weapons. The weapons that already exist are kept under the strictest lock and key. And their creation requires technology beyond the reach of any terrorist.

Yes: Nations can keep their nuclear weapons close to their chests. But all it takes is a single leak for a nuclear weapon to enter the world. And once it does, battle will begin.

No: Nuclear weapons are about the only thing stopping a huge war. As former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher said: "A world without nuclear weapons would be less stable and more dangerous for all of us."

Or... It depends who causes the attack and where it happens. It could cause a war. Or it could bring nuclear powers together to prevent further incidents. Hopefully we will never find out.