In the early 5th Century BC, war raged in Greece. Athens, a democracy, was pitted against Sparta, which was ruled by a king. The conflict between them lasted almost thirty years, and ended in crushing defeat for Athens.

As a result of this war, one of the first ever democracies was dismantled. Athens was instead placed under the rule of the Thirty Tyrants, a group of autocraticRelating to a ruler with total power. rulers picked by Sparta. They ruled by fear, massacring their political opponents.

It serves as a reminder that democracy has always been fragile. After the fall of Athens, democracy would not reappear for centuries.

And when they are not destroyed by foreign opponents, democracies are often brought down from within. In 1789, the people of France set up a democratic government, but just ten years later Napoleon BonaparteThe French military commander and political leader who rose to prominence during the French Revolution and led successful campaigns during the Revolutionary Wars. seized power and made himself emperor.

Some experts say the struggle between democracy and autocracy that stretches all the way back to Athens and Sparta never really ended. Today, democracy is still under threat from dictatorships.

China is fast becoming the world's greatest economic power. Russia has turned decisively against the West, and is even beginning to threaten it once again with its nuclear arsenal. Iran is seeking to develop its own nuclear weapons, rejecting efforts at diplomacy from European countries.

Moreover, there are signs that the world's most powerful dictatorships are beginning to band together. Xi Jinping has been drawing closer to Vladimir Putin in recent weeks, and Iran has supplied Russia with Shahed-136 drones to rain death down on Ukraine.¹

Democracies also face threats from within, they warn. In November, many candidates in US elections backed the conspiracy theory that the 2020 election was rigged against Donald Trump. Trump himself is due to run for president again in 2024.

Others, however, think we should be optimistic about the future of democracy. They say it is dictatorships that are looking more and more fragile.

The war in Ukraine is going very badly for Russia. It has already lost up to 100,000 men.² By the middle of this year, Ukraine might have pushed the invader off its land entirely. If he loses the war, Putin is unlikely to last much longer as leader.

Meanwhile, China and Iran have both been rocked by protests: China over its zero-CovidThe idea of managing Covid-19 by eliminating it entirely from a population. policy, which it has been forced to abandon, and Iran over its strict morality laws that dictate what women can wear.

And would-be dictators all over the world have been rebuffed by their own people. Many feared Brazilian president Jair BolsonaroThe right wing Brazilian president from 2019 to 2022. would try to overturn his electoral defeat and hold on to power, but democracy prevailed and on Sunday, his opponent Lula da Silva was sworn in as president.

The USA also seems to have turned the page on the Trump era. Republicans did not win the thumping victory they were expecting in November's elections, and candidates who endorsed Trump's election lies were roundly rejected by voters.

Yes: 2022 was predicted to be the year in which dictatorship would triumph over democracy. Instead, autocracies everywhere have been dragged down by conflict and protests, while democracy is looking stronger than ever.

No: Last year certainly saw some setbacks for autocratic regimes, but the trend is clear: dictatorships are becoming more powerful and democracies are on the wane.

Or... The problem is not that dictatorships are growing more powerful, but that they are becoming normalised, with many having succeeded in whitewashing their reputations.