In the early 5th Century BC, war raged in Greece. Athens, a democracy, was pitted against Sparta, which was ruled by a king. The conflict ended in crushing defeat for Athens.

As a result of this war, one of the first ever democracies was dismantled. Athens was instead placed under the rule of the Thirty Tyrants, a group of autocraticRelating to a ruler with total power. rulers picked by Sparta. They ruled by fear, massacring their political opponents.

It serves as a reminder that democracy has always been fragile. After the fall of Athens, democracy would not reappear for centuries.

Some experts say the struggle between democracy and autocracy never really ended. Today, democracy is still under threat from dictatorships.

China is fast becoming the world's greatest economic power. Russia has turned decisively against the West, and is even beginning to threaten it once again with its nuclear arsenal. Iran is seeking to develop its own nuclear weapons.

Moreover, there are signs that the world's most powerful dictatorships are beginning to band together. China's Xi Jinping has been drawing closer to Vladimir Putin in recent weeks, and Iran has supplied Russia with drones.¹

Democracies also face threats from within, they warn. In November, many candidates in US elections backed the conspiracy theory that the 2020 election was rigged against Donald Trump. Trump himself is due to run for president again in 2024.

Others, however, think we should be optimistic about the future of democracy. They say it is dictatorships that are looking more and more fragile.

The war in Ukraine is going very badly for Russia. It has already lost up to 100,000 men.² If he loses the war, Putin is unlikely to last much longer as leader.

Meanwhile, China and Iran have both been rocked by protests: China over its zero-CovidThe idea of managing Covid-19 by eliminating it entirely from a population. policy, and Iran over laws that dictate what women can wear.

And would-be dictators all over the world have been rebuffed by their own people. Many feared Brazilian president Jair BolsonaroThe right wing Brazilian president from 2019 to 2022. would try to overturn his electoral defeat and hold on to power, but democracy prevailed and on Sunday, his opponent Lula da Silva was sworn in as president.

Yes: 2022 was predicted to be the year in which dictatorship would triumph over democracy. Instead, autocracies everywhere have been dragged down by conflict and protests, while democracy is looking stronger than ever.

No: Last year certainly saw some setbacks for autocratic regimes, but the trend is clear: dictatorships are becoming more powerful and democracies are on the wane.

Or... The problem is not that dictatorships are growing more powerful, but that they are becoming normalised, as places like Qatar and Saudi Arabia have succeeded in whitewashing their reputations.