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Geography

Crowded world to face a hungry future

Food is easily taken for granted — supermarket shelves are piled with foodstuffs from all over the world. The days of rationingWhen the number of goods or foods one person can buy is limited. Rationing is often used in times of war or shortages. — when a single egg was a prized treasure, and a banana an unheard-of luxury — are long since over. But according to a report published yesterday, such abundance may soon be a thing of the past. The report warns of a "major threat" to global food supplies, driven by a "perfect storm" of population growth, climate change and shrinking resources. Worries about world food are nothing new. Two hundred years ago, a scholar called Thomas MalthusA clergyman who was interested in maths and political thought and became famous for his extremely influential work An Essay on the Principle of Population. Predictions about population growth leading to food shortages are known as “Malthusian” after him. warned that populations could grow beyond the limits of what the land could support. When this happened, he wrote, humanity would suffer devastating famine or disease until the population had returned to sustainable levels. In the 20th Century the world's population began to grow at an astonishing rate, leading to widespread fears of a "Malthusian crisis". In countries like India, famineA widespread scarcity of food.  had already claimed millions of lives, and looked set to destroy many more. But the 1960s saw what was later called "The Green Revolution". By introducing modern agricultural technology like chemical fertiliser and specially bred crops, scientists managed to produce harvests in the developing world that were ten times their former size. Now the gains of the Green Revolution are starting to run out. T global population keeps growing — it's predicted that we'll need 40% more food by 2050 — while in many places, agricultural yields have already peaked. What's more, modern intensive agriculture, which produces such high yields, consumes huge quantities of water and fertiliser. Now, in many places, underground water reserves have nearly run dry. Oil supplies, crucial for making fertiliser, won't last forever either. Food fight Now debate is raging over how to avoid a future of food riots and famines. Many scientists hope for a new wave of technological solutions. In the short term, they say, intensive farming in Africa could increase harvests there and lift millions out of poverty. In the longer term, new sciences like genetic modificationAlso known as genetic engineering. When technology is used to change or manipulate an organism's genes. could provide crops that will give high yields without guzzling scarce resources. But these ideas are bitterly opposed by some environmentalists, who argue that "industrial farming" is the wrong answer. They point out that while one billion people in the world go hungry, another billion are over-fed. We don't need to grow more food — just share it better. Q & A So is our population 'unsustainable'? A sustainable population is one that can be supported forever using renewable resources. At the moment, we use a lot of non-renewable resources (like oil) to survive. To become sustainable, we need to change a lot about the way we live. And can technology really help? It's controversial. The best-known technology is genetic modification (GM), a technique that alters the DNADeoxyribonucleic acid is the material in an organism that carries genetic information. of plants. Scientists hope that new GM plants will grow better without water or fertiliser. However, opponents claim that playing with DNA is very dangerous. What about social change? In the past, countries hit by famine have often continued to export food, even as people were starving. It's not that there wasn't enough food — just that people couldn't afford it. But, to share food equally, richer people would have to eat much less.KeywordsRationing - When the number of goods or foods one person can buy is limited. Rationing is often used in times of war or shortages.

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