"A ticking time bomb."

That's how one scientist in South Africa describes the coronavirus in the world's poorest continent. With the global number of cases fast approaching 200,000, only a few hundred have so far been reported in Africa. Most of these have been people arriving from overseas.

But health experts now believe community transmission is taking place and a "substantial epidemic" is highly likely within weeks. The World Health OrganisationThe United Nations agency responsible for global public health. fears weak governments and inadequate health care systems will fail to cope with an explosion of cases in Africa's densely-populated cities.

Over 53 million Africans live in slum conditions, with poor sanitationAccess to clean water and waste disposal. and extremely limited access to healthcare. It is virtually impossible in these circumstances to use social distancing methods to contain the virus. Three generations of one family live under the same roof and without running water or hand sanitiser, there is no way to shield the vulnerable from infection.

To make matters worse, Africa is already fighting a HIVAids epidemic that has infected over 23 million people. Along with tuberculosis, HIV severely increases the risk of infection, sickness, and death from flu-like viruses.

And when people fall ill, they are unlikely to get the level of care available in Europe and North America. Kenya, for example, has 50 million people but only 130 intensive care beds, compared to over 4,000 in the UK.

But there may be reasons to be cautiously optimistic. The virus disproportionately affects the elderly and Africa is a young continent with an average age of 20. Only 3% are over-65, compared to 12% in China and 20% in Italy. If fewer people are getting sick, African countries have a better chance of providing the care they need.

The climate may also come to the rescue. Respiratory infections like seasonal flu spread faster and are more severe in cold weather. If Covid-19 behaves in a similar way, the hot climate may weaken its effect in Africa. But experts warn we still don't know enough about the new virus.

There is hope, say some. Africa's lack of connections with the rest of the world has bought the continent extra time to prepare for the virus. Unused to epidemics, Europeans were caught off-guard by the coronavirus, and failed to act quickly and take the situation seriously. But Africans have valuable experience and expertise in fighting infectious diseases, like HIV and Ebola.

Others argue that what happens next in Africa will overshadow recent events in Europe. African countries do not have the resources to contain an outbreak, and they do not have the heath services to care for those who get ill. In the past, the world sent aid to Africa in times of famine and disease. With richer countries also facing the pandemic, help may be too little and far too late.