In the 12 years between May 2010 and July 2022, the UK went through four Chancellors of the ExchequerThe chancellor of the Exchequer, often just called the chancellor, is the UK government's chief finance minister. They are in charge of taxation and government spending and borrowing. . Four people have occupied the post in just the four months since then. When Jeremy Hunt, the current office-holder, stands before Parliament tomorrow to unveil his Autumn StatementThe Autumn Budget is an annual statement made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer to the House of Commons that sets out the UK government's planned spending and revenue gathering for the foreseeable future., he will have to hope he has more luck.

We do not yet know exactly what Hunt will announce. But there are dark hints.

He has said that everyone in the country will pay more in tax - although the richest will pay the most. And he wants to cut government spending by around £55bn.¹

The announcements accompany an equally grim economic outlook. The UK is in recessionA period of economic decline. A recession occurs when a country's Gross Domestic Product falls for six months in a row.  for the third time since 2008. InflationAn increase in the price of goods in an economy.  has hit 10.1%, the highest it has been in 40 years. And this means spending on welfareWelfare can take a variety of forms, such as monetary payments, subsidies and vouchers, or housing assistance. and pensionsA regular income paid by a government or a financial organisation to someone who no longer works, usually because of their age or health. has to increase by around £20bn just to keep up.²

The government claims it is necessary to fill a "fiscal black hole" of around £60bn. In other words, it is spending more than it can afford to, and it needs to raise more money and spend less to close the gap.

But this figure is misleading, some economists warn. There is no strict economic reason why the government needs to close the "black hole". It is a political choice by the government.

They think the UK is risking a "lost decade". They warn that if the TreasuryHis Majesty's Treasury is the government's economic and finance ministry. cuts spending, the country will be poorer, and so it will get less back in tax - creating a vicious cycle.

But others say spending cuts are necessary. They say the government is saddled with too much debt due to emergency spending on the pandemic and the energy crisis.

And they warn that if public spending does not come down, inflation will stay high and eat into people's incomes, prolonging the recession.

Yes: People are getting poorer, life is becoming unaffordable, our infrastructure is run-down and outdated. The economy needs to be modernised, or it will languish in low growth and productivity. That means spending more, not less.

No: The Autumn Statement will hurt, but it is a response to an immediate crisis. Once inflation is under control, the economy will start booming again.

Or... Growth and productivity were low even before this crisis. We have already had a lost decade, between 2010 and 2020. If anything, we now risk going backwards.

Chancellors of the Exchequer - The chancellor of the Exchequer, often just called the chancellor, is the UK government's chief finance minister. They are in charge of taxation and government spending and borrowing.

Autumn Statement - The Autumn Budget is an annual statement made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer to the House of Commons that sets out the UK government's planned spending and revenue gathering for the foreseeable future.

Recession - A period of economic decline. A recession occurs when a country's Gross Domestic Product falls for six months in a row. 

Inflation - An increase in the price of goods in an economy. 

Welfare - Welfare can take a variety of forms, such as monetary payments, subsidies and vouchers, or housing assistance.

pensions - A regular income paid by a government or a financial organisation to someone who no longer works, usually because of their age or health.

Treasury - His Majesty's Treasury is the government's economic and finance ministry.