<h2 class=" eplus-wrapper" id="crosshead">Trading blows</h2>

Throughout history, the power of empires has been based on their ability to control key resources. In the ancient world, this meant controlling the flow of water. In the 16th Century, Spain became the greatest state in Europe because of its monopoly on gold and silver from South America.¹ More recently, states like Saudi ArabiaThe second-largest country in the Arab world, with a population of nearly 35 million. , QatarA small country on the Arabian Peninsula, bordering Saudi Arabia. Like its larger neighbour, it has experienced rapid economic development but maintained strict conservative religious codes. and the UAEThe United Arab Emirates is a country in the Middle East, and the location of Dubai. have become global players thanks to their control of oil supplies.

That is why experts are constantly trying to predict what the next great resource will be. Some think it will once again be water; others say data will control the rise and fall of the superpowers of the 21st Century.

But there is another contender, according to historian Chris Miller. In a new book, he argues today's key resource is something that most of us overlook: microchipsA tiny piece of material containing electronic circuits. They can hold a huge amount of information. .

Microchips are behind everything we use on a day-to-day basis: not just computers, but microwaves, dishwashers and cars. They are the foundation of the internet and GPS navigation, as well as AIA computer programme that has been designed to think. , robotics and self-driving vehicles.

Perhaps most importantly, modern weapons systems cannot operate without microchips. And that is why the world's superpowers are doing everything they can to control the global supply of these tiny miracles.

For decades, the USA has dominated microchip production. It has hoarded the technological know-how needed to manufacture them. This has allowed it to build the most powerful military the world has ever seen, while denying its enemies the chance to catch up.

In recent months, US sanctions have seen the supply of microchips to Russia dry up since its invasion of Ukraine. While it has managed to smuggle some from abroad, this has reduced its capacity to manufacture new weapons.

The USA's other great rival, ChinaA country in East Asia, home to 1.4 billion people., has long understood the importance of microchips. It uses 50% of all microchips produced around the world.²

This has made it dependent on the USA. But now it is spending $1.4 trillion (£1.24 trillion) every year to develop its own microchip industry and secure what it calls "digital sovereignty".

The USA is not going down without a fight. Earlier this month, the country launched a trade war on Chinese microchips, bringing in new restrictions on the sale of microchips to China and on US citizens working for Chinese microchip manufacturing plants.

However, while the USA still largely controls the technology behind microchips, actual production of the chips mostly does not take place on American soil. Instead, they are produced by its east Asian allies: Japan, South Korea and TaiwanAn island country in east Asia. China still claims to be the legitimate owner of Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government until recently claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China..

All three are in China's neighbourhood. And Taiwan, the world's biggest microchip producer, is directly in the firing line.

China could therefore easily threaten the supply lines that bring microchips to the USA. And if China declares war on Taiwan, as it has threatened to do, it could also gain access to all its production facilities. Almost overnight, China would gain a near-monopoly on what Miller calls the world's most important resource.

Yes: Microchips could be about to cause a world war. And if a war does reduce the supply of microchips, it will become difficult to make any of the technologies that sustain modern life. We are staring down the barrel of a historic crisis.

No: This is just another aspect of the trade war that has been raging between the USA and China for some time now. And no-one would gain from disrupting the global supply of microchips.

Or... There are important things here, but the role of microchips is overstated. China's hostility towards Taiwan and its trade war with the USA have much deeper roots.

Saudi Arabia - The second-largest country in the Arab world, with a population of nearly 35 million.

Qatar - A small country on the Arabian Peninsula, bordering Saudi Arabia. Like its larger neighbour, it has experienced rapid economic development but maintained strict conservative religious codes.

UAE - The United Arab Emirates is a country in the Middle East, and the location of Dubai.

Microchips - A tiny piece of material containing electronic circuits. They can hold a huge amount of information.

AI - A computer programme that has been designed to think. 

China - A country in East Asia, home to 1.4 billion people.

Taiwan - An island country in east Asia. China still claims to be the legitimate owner of Taiwan, while the Taiwanese government until recently claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China.