Ever since Vladimir Putin sent over 200,000 troops into Ukraine, there has been one question. Why?

Ukraine is a vast country with a hostile populace.

Some believe it was a miscalculation. They suggest Putin assumed the Ukrainian military would crumble as it did in 2014Russian forces seized and then annexed Crimea, part of Ukrainian territory. They also entered eastern Ukraine and engaged Ukrainian soldiers there. . In his mind, the Ukrainian people were disillusioned with their government and would accept a Russian intervention.

Others think the Russian leader is not thinking rationally. Some suggest he has suffered a stroke.

A third opinion is emerging. Perhaps the Russian invasion was a throw of the dice by a leader who can feel the winds of history changing.

Until 1991, Russia was one of the world's two great superpowers, rivalling the USA. Since the collapse of the USSRThe United Socialist Soviet Republic, the USA's main rival in the Cold War before it collapsed and broke up into a number of smaller states in 1991., the USA has sat at the head of a unipolar worldA world order where there is only one superpower with no major rivals.. Russia has been downgraded to regional power.

The tectonic plates are shifting again. The USA is withdrawing from the Middle East and Europe and shifting its gaze towards China.

Putin may have calculated that the age of unipolar world politics is over. And Russia is at risk of being swallowed in the new rivalry between the USA and China.

Some think he has decided Russia will only survive if it proves it is still a power to be reckoned with. 

Putin might be forced to turn to Chinese President Xi Jinping to save him. Russia has asked China for military equipment to aid in the invasion.

The USA has threatened that China will face "severe consequences" if it helps Russia evade sanctions.

The temptation for Xi is that by bailing out Putin, he could secure the loyalty of the giant on his northern border.

On the other hand, Russia is now a global pariah. Only four countries voted with Russia on a motion in the UN General AssemblyThe main policy-making body of the UN comprising all member states. demanding that the country withdraw its forces: North Korea, EritreaA country in the Horn of Africa that won its independence from Ethiopia in 1993. It has one of the worst human rights records in the world., Syria and BelarusBelarus is an eastern European state that is a close ally of Russia. Run by Alexander Lukashenko, it is known as "the last dictatorship in Europe".. All are Russian-aligned rogue statesStates that are considered threats to world peace.. China does not want to risk global unpopularity by siding with them.

More appealing would be the idea of brokering a peace deal. Then Xi can present himself as the only statesman able to calm tensions between a hostile West and a defensive, insecure Russia.

He could cement China's place in the international order and deal a body blow to the USA's claim to be the world's moral leader.

Yes: The Chinese leadership is smart and pragmatic. It can see how much it would benefit China to end this conflict and restore global peace. Expect it to seize the opportunity.

No: China is not trusted as a neutral party in this conflict. And Putin still believes he can beat Ukraine. For as long as these things remain true, Xi Jinping will be unable to broker a deal.

Or... China may or may not be able to end the crisis in Ukraine, but for as long as the West and Russia are at loggerheads, it will be able to present itself as a global peacemaker and win wider support.